MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Aug. 21

Happy Friday! We have a great day of baseball on deck, with several MLB home run props worth targeting. I’m looking at a few favorable power matchups, plus another total bases prop that stands out. Let’s dive into my best baseball bets for Aug. 21!

MLB Home Run Props Today for Aug. 21

The Guardians visit the Rockies at Coors Field at 8:40 p.m. ET, and Nathaniel Lowe is my first MLB home run prop today. You can find the market on DraftKings Sportsbook, and this is an outstanding matchup for the lefty slugger.

Tanner Gordon gets the start for Colorado, and he's been a mess in 2026. The right-hander owns a 5.55 ERA over 71 1/3 innings and has been one of the league’s most hittable starters. According to Baseball Savant, Gordon ranks at the bottom of the league in average exit velocity allowed, while his ground-ball rate, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed all sit in the eighth percentile or lower.

That is a dangerous mix in Denver. Coors Field already adds life to the baseball, and Friday’s forecast calls for scorching temperatures in the upper 90s before first pitch. Gordon has struggled to limit quality contact anywhere; doing it at altitude is an even taller task.

Lowe has done nearly all of his damage against right-handed pitching. All 14 of his homers have come against righties, and he owns a .531 slugging percentage with a .244 ISO in the split. Gordon has allowed an ISO north of .300 to lefties, which is exactly the matchup we want for a home run bet.

Best Bet: Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +410

MLB Home Run Predictions: Griffin Conine

Next, the Marlins host the Nationals at LoanDepot Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Brad Lord is expected to start for Washington, and Griffin Conine is another left-handed power bat worth targeting.

Conine’s power breakout has been impossible to ignore. He has 14 home runs in fewer than 180 at-bats this season, and every one has come against a right-handed pitcher. He is slugging above .600 in that split, while his expected ISO sits north of .300.

The quality of contact backs it up. Conine has produced premium barrel and hard-hit numbers, and he has consistently made the kind of contact that can change a game with one swing. He may be a pinch-hit risk against lefties, but a right-handed starter gives him the matchup he needs.

Lord has allowed a .176 ISO to left-handed hitters, though his .227 expected ISO allowed suggests that figure could climb. Washington’s relief group also entered Thursday with the most home runs allowed by any bullpen and the worst bullpen ERA in baseball.

Before locking in a home run ticket, it is worth comparing the available markets at a few trusted sports betting apps.

Best Bet: Griffin Conine to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +430

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MLB Player Props Today: Nolan Arenado

For my final MLB player prop today, I’m taking Nolan Arenado over 1.5 total bases at +145 on DraftKings when the Diamondbacks host the Reds at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Arenado has been red hot in August, with six homers and a slugging percentage above .600 entering Friday. Nick Lodolo has dealt with recurring blister issues and has been prone to loud contact, ranking below average in barrel rate allowed and near the bottom of the league in average exit velocity allowed and expected ERA.

Lodolo has surrendered 11 homers to right-handed hitters, but this total-bases prop creates more ways to cash: two singles, one extra-base hit, or a homer all clear the line.

Chase Field is a favorable, controlled hitting environment, and Arenado’s current form makes the plus-money price especially appealing. If you're figuring out where to place a home run wager, check out a few betting sites before Friday's MLB slate begins.

Best Bet: Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases DraftKings, +145

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Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets!