MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Aug. 20

Thursday’s slate is a little smaller, but there are still several MLB home run props worth targeting. I’m backing two elite power bats in favorable matchups, plus one plus-money strikeout prop. Let’s dive into my favorite MLB player props for Aug. 20!

MLB Home Run Props Today: Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero is my first MLB home run prop today as the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays at 1:10 p.m. ET. The number is available on DraftKings Sportsbook, and this is a great spot to target right-handed power against Shane Bieber.

Bieber owns a 4.99 ERA and is not the lights-out star he was earlier in his career. The veteran right-hander has allowed a .235 expected ISO to left-handed hitters and a .227 expected ISO to righties this season. The power numbers have been somewhat fortunate against righties, but the expected data points toward regression.

That is bad news against Caminero. Dating back to the beginning of 2025, he owns a .280 ISO against right-handed pitching and has emerged as one of the best right-handed power hitters in baseball.

Bieber ranks in just the fifth percentile in barrel rate allowed, third percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and first percentile in expected ERA, according to Baseball Savant. The advanced metrics hate what he has done, and Caminero has a real chance to make him pay.

Best Bet: Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run DraftKings

MLB Home Run Predictions: Yordan Alvarez

Next, we’ll head to Houston as the Astros host the Los Angeles Angels at 8:10 p.m. ET. Grayson Rodriguez gets the ball for the Angels, and this is a smash spot for Yordan Alvarez.

Rodriguez owns an ERA north of 7.00 and has allowed an ISO above .205 to hitters from both sides of the plate. The former elite prospect has dealt with injuries throughout his career, and it has been tough sledding through nearly 60 innings this season.

Alvarez has been one of baseball’s best bounce-back stories. After some wrote him off due to chronic lower-body issues, he has bounced back in a major way. He owns a .325 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and his advanced metrics are through the roof.

Rodriguez ranks in the first percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, eighth percentile in barrel rate allowed, and second percentile in expected ERA. Left-handed hitters are slugging .543 against him this season. That is a brutal profile against Alvarez, and I love this matchup.

If you haven't yet, check out a few sports betting apps before placing a home run bet tonight!

Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run DraftKings

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MLB Player Props Today: Grant Holmes

For my MLB strikeout prop today, I’m taking Grant Holmes over 4.5 strikeouts at +133 on DraftKings as the Atlanta Braves face the Chicago White Sox.

Holmes is not an elite swing-and-miss pitcher, but I’m interested in this plus-money number in a cupcake matchup. Chicago has been fun again this season, but the White Sox have also been striking out at an extremely high rate.

In August, Chicago owns the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at nearly 27%. Since the beginning of July, the White Sox still rank fifth-worst in strikeout rate.

Holmes has some talent. His whiff rate and chase rate both sit slightly above league average, and this is a great chance for him to reach five punchouts. At +133, the price is just too generous against one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball.

Strikeout odds can move quickly as lineups roll out, making it useful to track the market across established betting sites.

Best Bet: Grant Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +133

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Good luck, and let’s cash these best bets!