MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Aug. 17
Happy Monday! There are some excellent MLB home run props to target across today’s slate, and I’ve found two power bats plus a strikeout prop worth betting. Let’s get into my best MLB picks for Aug. 17.
MLB Home Run Props Today for Aug. 17
Matt Olson to hit a home run at +337 on DraftKings Sportsbook is my top MLB home run pick today. The Atlanta Braves visit the Minnesota Twins, and Olson gets an excellent matchup against right-hander Bailey Ober.
Ober came into the league with some real expectations, but he has been underwhelming this season. He owns a 4.64 ERA and ranks no better than the 10th percentile in barrel rate allowed or hard-hit rate allowed. He also ranks in the first percentile in fastball velocity, which is not a great recipe against a powerful left-handed hitter.
Lefties have posted a .475 slugging percentage against Ober this season, and Olson is the type of hitter who can take advantage of that matchup in a hurry.
Olson is on track to crack 40 home runs for the first time since 2023. Temperatures should be perfect for homer hunting in Atlanta today, pushing low-to-mid 90s by the time the first pitch is thrown.
Additionally, Olson is swinging a hot bat right now after hitting a tater on Sunday. Let's look for another home run on Monday.
Best Bet: Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run DraftKings, +337
MLB Home Run Predictions: Jac Caglianone
Next, we’ll head to Kansas City as the Royals host the Athletics. Jac Caglianone gets a matchup with A's starter Mason Barnett, and Cags has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball during the second half.
Caglianone has already hit five home runs in August, and he's displaying the kind of power that earned him a spot in the home run derby last month. This is the breakout Royals fans have been waiting for, and he is rapidly becoming one of the game’s brightest young power bats.
The advanced metrics back it up. Caglianone ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected slugging percentage. That is a superstar profile.
Barnett has been a pitcher to target with left-handed power. He owns a 6.16 ERA, has allowed a .541 slugging percentage to lefties, does not keep the ball on the ground, and has surrendered a double-digit barrel rate. The newest Royals' superstar makes sense to back as one of the best MLB home run props today.
Best Bet: Jac Caglianone to Hit a Home Run DraftKings
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days MLB Player Props Today: Brandon Young
For my MLB strikeout prop today, I’m taking Brandon Young under 3.5 strikeouts at -124 on DraftKings as he faces the Tampa Bay Rays.
This is an uncomfortably low number, but the matchup makes a ton of sense. Tampa Bay has been the stingiest strikeout team against right-handed pitching for most of the season. The Rays have been even tougher in August, striking out at an absurdly low 14% clip against righties.
Young is a fairly average pitcher from a strikeout perspective. He has punched out fewer than 20% of the hitters he has faced this season. He does own a respectable chase rate, but the whiff rate is pretty unappealing.
Tampa Bay’s lineup is disciplined, patient, and built to put the ball in play. That is a difficult formula for Young to overcome, and I like the Rays to stick to their identity and keep him below four strikeouts.
Best Bet: Brandon Young Under 3.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -124
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!
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