MLB Home Run Props and Predictions for August 16: Alvarez Goes Deep in Pursuit of Triple Crown

MLB Today’s Best Bets for 08/02: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

It’s the dog days of mid-August and with the trade deadline in the rear-view mirror, we’ve got a full 15-game slate Sunday. We have afternoon baseball, starting at 12:15 pm ET when the Orioles finish up an AL East set with the Rays down in the Sunshine State. The schedule gives plenty of opportunities to find the best MLB bets today, including the top home run props. After looking over the slate, we’ve identified our favorite plays to bolster your bankroll. Without further ado, let’s get to the best options on the board for Sunday, August 16.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for August 16

Jose Ramirez, Guardians Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120, BetMGM)

It’s been a rough season for Ramirez on the shores of Lake Erie this year. He entered Sunday hitting .232 with 19 doubles, 10 homers and 38 RBI on the year. Ramirez missed time with a hand injury and hope to get hot down the stretch to help Cleveland’s playoff chances. Ramirez gets a crack at the Padres’ Casey Mize in the finale of a weekend set and that bodes favorably for him. He is six of 14 (.429) in his career against Mize with more walks (two) than strikeouts (one) entering this contest. In addition, he has a pair of homers to go with five RBI on the books. He is in good shape to cash here.

Dylan Cease, Blue Jays Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-113, FanDuel)

Cease piles up the strikeouts and this one seems poised for a similar result. The Yankees are 26th in the majors in strikeout rate as they whiff 9.13 times per contest on the year. Meanwhile, that number jumps to 9.54 strikeouts a game as the visiting team. That number ranks 27th in the majors, ahead of just the White Sox, Orioles and Pirates. Cease stands 7-5 with a  2.40 ERA and stands second in the league with 191 strikeouts over 130.1 innings of work. Current Yankee hitters have a .213 average in 89 at-bats with 23 strikeouts. That’s enough to see Cease, who fanned nine Yankees in five innings in his first start against them this season, to surpass the number.

Eury Perez, Marlins Over 17.5 Outs (-120, Hard Rock)

Perez doesn’t have a pretty record as he stands 6-9 on the year despite a 3.39 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 116.2 innings of work. However, he does a solid job of saving the bullpen, especially of late. Since the start of July, Perez logged seven starts for the Marlins. He’s worked at least six innings in six of those starts. Meanwhile, each of those six outings were quality starts. It’s almost a shame that he is just 2-3 in that span. Facing a Reds team that ranks dead last in team batting average (.227) works in Perez’s favor. In addition, Cincinnati is hitting a putrid .220 as a team at the Great American Ball Park. He should go at least six frames to cash the prop.

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Home Run Picks Today (08/16):

Junior Caminero, Rays (+280, FanDuel)

Caminero is having a stellar season for the Rays in 2026. He entered Sunday with a .275 average, 18 doubles, 35 homers and 79 RBI on the year. That includes a .293 mark with 18 homers in 215 at-bats at the Trop this season. In addition, Caminero gets the advantage of facing an Orioles’ team that entered Sunday surrendering 4.77 runs per game. Meanwhile, that number climbs to 5.05 runs per game on the road, ranking 26th in the majors. Trevor Rogers allowed just 12 homers so far this year but Caminero is three of seven in his career against the lefthander. On the year, Caminero is hitting .288 with seven homers in 118 at-bats against left-handed pitching. Caminero goes deep again here.

Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+275, Hard Rock)

It’s the finale of a big series in the Lone Star State rivals in Houston this weekend with a pair of teams from the watered-down AL West battling. Alvarez continues to do damage as he’s in the thick of a race for the Triple Crown. In Friday’s opener, he was two of four with a solo homer in a 10-7, 10-inning, Houston win. He entered Sunday’s finale hitting .321 with 25 doubles, 36 homers and 88 RBI on the year. In addition, Alvarez has a sizzling .385 average with 19 doubles, 20 homers and 50 RBI in 218 at-bats at Daikin Park this year. When it comes to facing Bryan Woo, he has a good track record. For his career, Alvarez is two of four (.500) against Rocker. Furthermore, one of those two knocks found the seats. Look for him to rake again here to cash the prop.

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