MLB Best Bets Today: Top Pitcher Props for Sept. 27
It’s the final day of the MLB regular season and that brings us to my top pitcher props for Sunday, September 27.
With so little at stake for most teams, you have to doublecheck as to who might take the mound in some of these games. We’re focusing on some of the pitching matchups that we know are, at least on paper, favorable to try and take advantage of here.
Best MLB Pitcher Props Today (Sept. 27)
Pitching Prop #1: Logan Gilbert, Mariners
We’ll start the column off about our top pitching props by looking at an AL West matchup between a pair of teams that are playing out the string up in the Emerald City.
Logan Gilbert is 12-11 with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.104 WHIP, 48 walks and 197 strikeouts over 182 innings of work on the year. He struggled down the stretch, losing four of his last five starts entering this contest. Even still, he’s recorded his share of strikeouts, fanning 35 hitters over 26.2 innings in that stretch.
Gilbert fanned seven over six innings in his lone start against the Angels this season, which came in a 2-1 loss September 15. Meanwhile, he is in the 72nd percentile in chase rate (32.6%) on the year. He also is in the 85th percentile in whiff rate (30.4%) and the 79th percentile in strikeout rate (26.7%) this season.
In addition, the Angels are second-worst in runs (4.05) and last in strikeouts (9.56) per game this season. Gilbert. He has at least seven strikeouts in 14 of his 31 starts and six in five other outings. Facing the Angels, you have to think he racks up some strikeouts in his final outing of the year.
Best Bet: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts BetMGM, -125
Pitching Prop #2: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
We take a look at an interleague matchup here as the team with the AL’s best record, the Tampa Bay Rays, take on the Philadelphia Phillies, who are trying to secure a playoff spot.
Zack Wheeler has pitched well for Philadelphia this season, as has Cristopher Sanchez. The problem for the Phillies is that those guys are only two-fifths of the rotation. He’s 13-5 with a 3.06 ERA, a 1.048 WHIP, 47 walks and 188 strikeouts over 156 innings in 27 starts.
While Wheeler has turned in excellent numbers in terms of metrics, this is a tough matchup for him. He’s in the 94th percentile in chase rate (36.1%), the 89th percentile in whiff rate (31.4%) and the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage (30.2%) this season.
The problem for Wheeler is that Tampa Bay is the toughest team in the majors to strike out this year. The Rays whiff just 7.05 times per contest. Current Tampa Bay hitters own a .271 average (13-for-48) against Wheeler with only 10 strikeouts. Roll with the under here.
Best Bet: Zack Wheeler Under 5.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, +116
Pitching Prop #3: Jared Jones, Pirates
We go to the Motor City for an interleague matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Detroit Tigers.
Jones missed time with an injury that cost him time this season. He is 5-6 with a 3.87 ERA, a 1.116 WHIP, 31 walks and 118 strikeouts over 97.2 innings of work in 20 starts on the year.
Jones has excellent metrics when it comes to recording punchouts on the year. He is in the 95th percentile in fastball velocity (98.2 mph) and the 83rd percentile in expected batting average (.213) on the year. In addition, he is in the 72nd percentile in chase rate (32.6%), the 93rd percentile in whiff rate (32.6%) and the 90th percentile in strikeout rate (29.6%) this season.
Detroit strikes out at the eighth-highest rate in the majors this season. The Tigers average 8.68 strikeouts per game. They fanned a dozen times in Saturday’s contest in a bullpen game. Jones should be capable of earning his share of strikeouts here.
Best Bet: Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -145
Bonus Pitching Prop: Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers
We finish up with a battle of teams from the NL Central in the Cream City. The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road as they finish the season against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Jacob Misiorowski gets the call for the Brewers in his final start of the regular season. He is the likely NL Cy Young winner as he is 15-5 with a 1.86 ERA, a 0.803 WHIP, 42 walks and 247 strikeouts over 169.1 innings of work this year.
Misiorowski has stifled the Cardinals this season, allowing just five hits while striking out 22 in 14 innings over two starts. While this is a prime spot for Misiorowski to rack up the strikeouts, one needs to consider his recent workload. He’s gone more than five innings just once in four September starts as the Brewers are trying to keep him fresh for the postseason.
The Cardinals are tied for seventh in the majors in strikeout rate with 8.02 punchouts per game. With the Brewers likely to keep Misiorowski’s innings down in this contest, he likely ends up falling under the number in this outing.
Best Bet: Jacob Misiorowski Under 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -109
Before placing a Sunday pitcher prop, compare pricing across the leading sports betting apps and the best MLB betting sites. Pitching props, especially strikeout ones, are volatile by nature, and price-shopping matters even more when you are betting plus-money markets.
Good luck with all of your bets!
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