MLB Best Bets Today: Top Pitcher Props for Sept. 26
It’s the next to last day of the MLB regular season and that brings us to my top pitcher props for Saturday, September 26.
With so little at stake for most teams, you have to doublecheck as to who might take the mound in some of these games. We’re focusing on some of the pitching matchups that we know are, at least on paper, favorable to try and take advantage of here.
Best MLB Pitcher Props Today (Sept. 26)
Pitching Strikeout Prop #1: Trey Yesavage, Blue Jays
We’ll start the column off about our top pitching props by looking at an interleague set north of the border. The Cincinnati Reds close out a disappointing campaign with this set against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Yesavage is 5-5 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 95.2 innings of work this season in 19 starts. He missed six weeks with a torn left meniscus in his knee but returned last week.
Yesavage has the ability to pile up strikeouts. He stands in the 90th percentile in batting average allowed (.199) and the 83rd percentile in whiff rate (30.1%) this season. Meanwhile, he is in the 61st percentile in strikeout percentage (23.9%) this season.
Cincinnati struggled to put runs on the board all season long. The Reds enter the final weekend the year 26th in runs per game (4.12) on the year. In addition, Cincinnati strikes out at the second-highest rate in the majors at 9.52 whiffs per contest. We saw Yesavage whiff three in two innings in his first start back. He does enough damage here to wind up over the number in his final start of the year.
Best Bet: Trey Yesavage Over 3.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -142
Pitching Strikeout Prop #2: Blake Snell, Dodgers
We take a look at a matchup between NL West rivals in this contest as the Los Angeles Dodgers face the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park.
Snell dealt with a ton of injury issues this season, which is why this marks just his ninth start of the year. He’s pitched well when he’s been on the bump, going 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, 16 walks and 52 strikeouts over 38.2 innings of work.
The problem for Snell, besides not going deep in games, are injuries. He’s averaged less than five innings a start in his eight outings. In addition, he left with a groin injury after just one inning back on September 16 against the Reds. He was skipped in his last turn in the rotation. With the Dodgers having nothing to play for, Dave Roberts likely is cautious with his big arms ahead of the postseason.
San Francisco is slightly above average in terms of avoiding strikeouts. Combining that with a likely short leash keeps Snell under his strikeout prop.
Best Bet: Blake Snell Under 6.5 Strikeouts Fanatics, -150
Pitching Strikeout Prop #3: Kade Anderson, Mariners
Seattle had high hopes this season but fell short as several key contributors cratered production wise from last year. The Mariners face a fellow disappointing AL West squad in the Los Angeles Angels here.
That led to Anderson, the Mariners’ top prospect and the #5 prospect in all of baseball, to get called up last month. He’s 2-2 with a 4.18 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, eight walks and 28 strikeouts over 32.1 innings in six big league starts.
While the Angels banged him around a bit in his first outing against them September 14, he had some positive trends. He gave up five runs on seven hits but didn’t walk a hitter while striking out five in 4.1 innings. Anderson generated a 34.1% chase rate in his first six starts, which is promising.
In addition, the Angels are second-worst in runs (4.03) and last in strikeouts (9.56) per game this season. Anderson bounces back and builds off his last start to go over this number.
Best Bet: Kade Anderson Over 6.5 Strikeouts Fanatics, +115
Bonus Pitching Prop: Bailey Ober, Twins
We finish up with a battle of teams from the American League in the Twin Cities. The Texas Rangers, still seeking to win the AL West, finish up with a series with the Minnesota Twins at Target Field.
Ober gets the call for the Twins here and he’s been the quintessential pitch to contact kind of guy this season. In 24 appearances, 23 starts, he is 7-6 with one save, a 4.21 ERA, 36 walks and 91 strikeouts over 123 innings of work.
He gets a break facing a Rangers team that is just 25th in runs per game this season. However, Ober sputtered as far as depth goes over the last several weeks. He’s made it past the fifth inning just once in his last five starts. Even in that outing, he got just one out in the sixth before departing. His last appearance was a three-inning save in an 8-0 win over the Angels Sunday.
Ober likely is a five-and-dive type guy here at best, so roll with the under on his outs recorded prop.
Best Bet: Bailey Ober Under 15.5 Outs Recorded DraftKings, -120
Before placing a Saturday pitcher prop, compare pricing across the leading sports betting apps and the best MLB betting sites. Pitching props, especially strikeout ones, are volatile by nature, and price-shopping matters even more when you are betting plus-money markets.
Good luck with all of your bets!
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