Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Props for Sept. 27: NY Takes Game 1

Written By Jason Green | Published at September 29, 2026

Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction for Game 1 of AL Wild Card series. The Yankees are 7-6 facing the Red Sox this season and the favorites in Game 1. — Sep 11, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) leans back to avoid getting hit by the pitch in the second inning against the New York Mets at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

In the biggest rivalry in baseball, and maybe in all of U.S. sports, the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the first game of a three-game AL Wild Card series. Stick with us, as we will show you the latest odds, game info, starting pitching matchup, and value prop bets in this Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction.

The Red Sox lost five of their last eight games, but they weren't full strength in a few of them, since they had the #2 Wild Card spot locked up. Boston was 6-7 facing New York this season, and they last met in the Big Apple in late August, where they dropped three of four games.

The big question for this huge game is: will Yankees slugger Aaron Judge play? He went back on the IL with a calf injury after missing a few months with a rib injury, and he said last Wednesday that he intends to play. Judge took part in live batting practice on Monday. Even with him missing many games, the Bronx Bombers lived up to their moniker with the second-most home runs in the Majors this season.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Here are the odds for Game 1 of this Wild Card series at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Moneyline: Yankees -154 / Red Sox +130
Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 runs (-115) / Under 6.5 runs (-105)
Run Line: Yankees -1.5 runs (+150) / Red Sox +1.5 runs (-180)

If you take the moneyline for this big game, you bet $100 to win $130 on the underdog Red Sox and bet $154 to win $100 on the favored Yankees.

You can find more information about the moneyline bet in our moneyline betting guide.

Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Red Sox are 3-5 in their last 8 games.
They have an Under record of 8-2 in their last 10 games.
They are 1-3 in their last four games as an underdog.
They are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.

In the Red Sox last series with the Yankees in late August, where they lost three games, they were the favorites in two of them.

New York Yankees Betting Trends

The Yankees ended the season winning three of their last four games.
They have an Over record of 11-1 in their last 12 games, including their last five.
They are 8-4 in their last 12 home games.
They are 12-6 in their last 18 games as a favorite.

The Yankees are a Wild Card team, but the popular sportsbooks in the U.S. have them with the fourth-best World Series odds. They look to keep up the momentum from the last two games of the series against Boston in August, when they won both, outscoring them 25-3.

Key Stats

Red Sox

Runs Scored: 23rd
Team ERA: 3rd

Yankees

Runs Scored: Tied for 9th
Team ERA: 1st

Starting Pitching Matchup

Red Sox

The Sox turn to Peyton Tolle (9-6, 3.03 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) in the first game of this series, and this season was his first full one in the Majors. He has allowed only three runs in 17 2/3 innings across three starts this month, with an ERA of 1.53. His lone start against the Yankees was his season debut, when he gave up one run in six innings and allowed only three hits, but the bullpen let him down in a 4-2 loss. On the season, Tolle has 171 strikeouts and 40 walks in 148 2/3 innings.

Yankees

Cam Schlittler (14-6, 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) is the more-than-likely AL Cy Young Award winner for the Yankees, and most US sportsbooks don't even have odds posted for the award. He has allowed no more than one earned run in any of his last nine starts. New York has won three of his four starts against Boston this season, where he has logged 193 2/3 innings, striking out 239 and walking 49. Schlittler ranks second in the Majors in ERA and has the third most strikeouts.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees -154

83% of the public has been betting on the Yankees in this series opener, and I am going with them with Schlittler on the hill. He is the shoo-in for the Cy Young and has an ERA south of 2.00. He has pitched well in three of four outings against Boston and will have another strong outing in Game 1 of this series.

Tolle will have a decent start, but Schlittler will have the better one, and while the Red Sox lead the Majors in bullpen ERA, the Yankees rank second in that category.

Unlike the last two games, this will be a low-scoring affair, but the Yankees will come up with some clutch hits at home, and with Schlittler on the hill, they will take the first game of this three-game AL Wild Card series.

More Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks, Props and Best Bets

Ben Rice to hit a home run: (+338, BetMGM) – Pretty good odds for Rice, who is tied for the sixth most home runs (41) in baseball.
Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 strikeouts: (-115, FanDuel) – Schlittler has over 7.5 strikeouts in four of his last six starts, ranks second in the Majors in strikeouts, and recorded over 7.5 Ks in his last two outings facing Boston.
Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 outs: (+114, BetMGM) – Schlittler only pitched three innings in his last start of the season, which did not mean anything for the standings. He recorded over 17.5 outs in his previous six starts and in three of four starts against the Red Sox this season.

You can find out all the info regarding prop betting in our prop betting guide.