Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds and Props for Oct. 16: Cleveland Wins Again

The Cleveland Guardians took a 2-1 lead in the ALCS with a win in Game 3 over the Tampa Bay Rays. This comprehensive Rays vs. Guardians prediction covers the latest odds, betting trends, starting pitching matchup, value prop bets, and more.

Note: Rain is in the forecast for this game, so if it's postponed until Saturday, the starting pitchers may change.

Series Recap

The Rays tied the series with a Game 2 win, but the Guardians are now up 2-1 in the ALCS after a 3-2 Game 3 win at home. Petey Halpin had a two-run home run, and Nathaniel Lowe had an RBI double. Chandler Simpson hit a two-run triple for the Rays' only runs, and Tampa Bay only had three hits and struck out 13 times.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds

Here are the odds for Game 4 of the ALCS at FanDuel Sportsbook

• Moneyline: Rays -116 / Guardians -102
• Total (Over/Under):  Over 6.5 runs (-108) / Under 6.5 runs (-112)
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 runs (+164) / Guardians +1.5 runs (-200)

In Game 4, the Rays are the slight favorite, and in a $100 moneyline example, you bet $100 on the underdog Guardians to win $102 and $116 on the favored Rays to win $100.

Learn more about moneyline betting in our moneyline betting guide.

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Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends

• The Rays are 8-5 in their last 13 road games.
• They are 4-2 in the playoffs with both losses in this series.
• They are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a favorite.
• They are 7-4-1 on the Over in their last 12 games.

In the regular season, the Rays won five of six games against the Guardians.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends

• The Guardians have won five of their last six playoff games after losing the first two.
• They are 7-2 in their last nine home games.
• They are 6-2 in their last eight games as an underdog.
• They are 9-6 on the Under in their last 15 games.

The total for Game 1 of this series went Over and has gone Under in the last two games.

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Key Stats

Rays

• Runs Scored: 12th
• Team ERA: 7th

Guardians

• Runs Scored: 24th
• Team ERA: 8th

Starting Pitching Matchup

Rays

Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) takes the mound for the Rays, and he started Game 3 of the ALDS going 3 ⅔ innings and giving up two runs in a 4-3 win over the New York Yankees. He has allowed two runs in three of his last four starts, but in his last two he has given up six runs in only 6 ⅓ innings. Tampa Bay won both his outings against the Guardians this season, in which he totaled 13 innings and allowed no runs. This season Martinez has worked 180 innings with 109 strikeouts and 26 walks.

The best US sportsbooks will have competitive odds and many prop bets for MLB games.

Guardians

The Guardians have not announced a starter for this game as of Friday morning. However, they are expected to go with a bullpen game in Game 4 like they did in Game 3 of the ALDS where reliever Daniel Espino got the start. Cleveland’s bullpen has been solid in the playoffs with an ERA of only 2.08.

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction:  Guardians ML -134

The Guardians lead the series 2-1 after the Game 3 win and have home-field advantage. While Martinez was great in his two starts against Cleveland, he hasn't been sharp in his last two starts, totaling 6 ⅓ innings and giving up six runs. Martinez and the Guardians bullpen will pitch well in this game, but as in the last game, Cleveland will come up with clutch hits, win on their field, and take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Rays vs. Guardians Picks, Props and Best Bets

• Jose Ramirez to record 2+ bases: (+143, DraftKings) – Cleveland’s Ramirez has been hot in the playoffs and has 2+ bases in five of the last six games.
• Nick Martinez to record over 11.5 outs: (-140, BetMGM) - While Martinez had two short outings in his last two starts, he will last longer tonight and pitch well, as he did in both starts against Cleveland this season, where he lasted until the sixth inning in each one.
• Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs: (-115, BetMGM) - While Diaz does not have a home run or RBI in the playoffs, he had 22 homers and 85 RBIs this season and has gone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in three of the six playoff games.

For more info on prop bets, check out our prop betting guide.

Rays vs. Guardians Broadcast Info

• Date: Friday, October 16
• Start Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
• TV and Streaming Options: TBS, truTV