Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Picks & Predictions

It’s the continuation of a series on the diamond between a pair of NL Central rivals hoping to build some positive momentum in Cream City as the Pittsburgh Pirates play the second game of a four-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday night and we have you covered with our Pirates vs. Brewers prediction.

Pittsburgh dropped three of four in Cincinnati over the weekend. They were battered 10-2 by the Reds in the finale Sunday afternoon. Milwaukee missed a chance to sweep the Angels on the road as they were blanked 3-0 in the finale Sunday. In the regular season series between the teams, the Pirates own a 5-1 advantage entering Monday’s opener. This article was written prior to the conclusion of Monday night’s game at American Family Field.

Pittsburgh Fighting to Stay in NL Wild Card Race

Pirates Last Game

On Sunday, Pittsburgh was in a hole early and never recovered as they took a beating in Cincinnati. The Pirates dropped to 56-57 on the year and stood third in the NL Central, 14.5 games behind Milwaukee. Meanwhile, they were 3.5 games back of the Diamondbacks and Phillies, who were tied for the final two NL wild card spots. Pittsburgh had just four hits with Jacob Gonzalez (run) recording a pair in the loss. Mitch Keller (6-8) took the loss as he allowed seven runs on six hits with four walks and two strikeouts over two-plus innings of work.

Pirates Probable Starter

Jared Jones is in line for the Pirates on the bump as he makes his 12th start of the season here. He is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA, a 1.019 WHIP, 15 walks and 58 strikeouts over 52 innings of work this year. Jones took the loss in his last start, which came against the Diamondbacks at home Wednesday. He allowed three runs on four hits with two walks and five strikeouts. However, he was victimized by a lack of run support in a 3-0 Pirates loss.

In his last three starts, Jones is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, four walks and 19 strikeouts over 17 innings of work. Jones beat the Brewers in his lone career start against them, which came at home on April 22, 2024. In that outing, he threw six innings, allowing one run on four hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in a 4-2 Pirates victory. Jones, in his 34th career major league start, pitches at American Family Field for the first time here.

Brewers Maintaining Comfortable Edge In NL Central

Brewers Last Game

In what has to be a disappointment, the Brewers, with their ace on the mound, fell to the Angels on the road Sunday. That loss prevented a sweep by the Brew Crew, who entered Monday 69-42 on the year. They held a comfortable 6.5-game advantage over the Cubs for the top spot in the NL Central. On Sunday, Milwaukee was limited to five hits as Jackson Chourio was the lone player with two in the contest. The Brewers went one for six with runners in scoring position and left seven men on base. Jacob Misiorowski (11-5) pitched well but took the loss. He threw seven innings, allowing two runs on two hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts, before departing.

Brewers Probable Starter

Logan Henderson takes the hill for the Brewers here as he makes his 10th start of the season. He is 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA, a 0.909 WHIP, nine walks and 54 strikeouts over 44 innings of work on the year. Henderson earned the win in his last start, which came last Tuesday on the road against the Giants. He threw 5.2 scoreless innings, allowing two hits with two walks and seven strikeouts. Milwaukee rolled to an 8-2 victory in the contest.

In his last three starts, Henderson is 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA, a 0.766 WHIP, two walks and 20 strikeouts over 15.2 innings of work. Henderson didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career start against the Pirates, which came on the road May 25, 2025. He threw five innings, allowing one run on five hits with two walks and six strikeouts in a game the Brewers went on to win 6-5. Henderson is 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA, a 0.839 WHIP, seven walks and 41 strikeouts over 31 innings in six career starts at American Family Field.

Pirates vs. Brewers Predictions

Brewers ML (-168, DraftKings)

While Pittsburgh is better this season than in recent years, the fact remains that they entered Monday a game below .500 on the year. The Pirates dropped three of four in their last series over the weekend to the Reds. Pittsburgh actually made moves to try and improve their team for the home stretch, which is a massive deviation from the norm in recent years. The problem for the Pirates is that they are 27-29 on the road entering Monday. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 36-20 at home this season. Missing Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz and Ryan O’Hearn takes a trio of bats out of the Pirates’ lineup. Milwaukee has a better pitching staff and that gives them the edge in this contest.

Under 8 (-126, DraftKings)

This one features a pair of offenses that are in the top five in the majors in runs per game entering Monday night. Pittsburgh stands second by scoring 5.12 runs per contest this year. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is fifth in the majors by scoring five runs per game. Pittsburgh is weaker on the road, averaging 4.79 runs per game as the visiting team this year. In addition, Milwaukee allows just 3.46 runs per game at American Family Field. That number is the second-lowest mark in the majors. Both pitchers have been good at run prevention. Therefore, take the under in this one.