Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds & Props for Oct. 1: Atlanta Moves On

The Philadelphia Phillies won Game 2 of this series, forcing a winner-take-all Game 3 against the Atlanta Braves. Check out this comprehensive Phillies vs. Braves prediction for betting trends, the probable starting-pitching matchup, the latest odds, and value prop bets for this Wild Card elimination game.

The Braves are trying to reverse their playoff fortunes against the Phillies, whom they lost to in the 2022 and 2023 National League Division Series.

After losing the series opener 5-3, the Phillies won the second game 4-3 in 10 innings, with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper going yard, and Alec Bohm playing the hero with a solo home run in the 10th inning.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds

Here are the odds for Game 3 of this NL Wild Card series at Caesars Sportsbook.

• Moneyline: Phillies -116 / Braves -102
• Total (Over/Under):  Over 7.5 runs (-118) / Under 7.5 runs (-104)
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 runs (+146) / Braves +1.5 runs (-178)

The Phillies are slight favorites in Game 3, and in a moneyline example using $100, you bet $100 to win $102 on the underdog Braves and $116 to win $100 on the favored Phillies.

You can find more information about the moneyline bet in our moneyline betting guide.

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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends

• The Phillies are 2-5 in their last seven games.
• They have an Over record of 7-4-1 in their last 11 games.
• They are 9-6 in their last 15 road games.

The Phillies are 5-9 facing the Braves this season.

Atlanta Braves Betting Trends

• The Braves are 3-5 in their last eight games.
• The Braves are 11-7 in their last 18 home games.
• The Braves have an Under record of 4-2-2 in their last eight games.
• The Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 games as an Underdog.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Braves and the Phillies are tied for the second-worst World Series odds at +1700.

Key Stats

Phillies

• Runs Scored: 19th
• Team ERA: 11th

Braves

• Runs Scored: 8th
• Team ERA: 5th

Probable Starting Pitching Matchup

Phillies

While an official starter has not been named as of early Thursday morning, Aaron Nola (7-12, 4.67 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) is expected to get the start according to ESPN. The Phillies have lost four of his last five starts, including his last two, and in his last one he only lasted one inning, giving up three runs. Philly has lost all three of his starts against the Braves this season, and after he was rocked, giving up six runs in 4 2/3 innings in the first matchup, he gave up only three runs in 13 1/3 innings in the next two meetings, which were early in September. This season, Nola has worked 175 1/3 innings with 177 strikeouts and 55 walks.

Braves

The Braves also have not named a starter, but according to ESPN, Grant Holmes (10-6, 3.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) will either start or get bulk relief work. The Braves have lost three of his last four starts despite not giving up more than two runs in any of them. Atlanta is 2-2 in his four starts against the Phillies, with both losses coming last month, when he totaled 10 innings and gave up only two runs. This season, Holmes has logged 151 2/3 innings, striking out 115 and walking 62.

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Phillies vs. Braves Prediction:  Braves -102

As of Wednesday morning, 61% of the public money has backed the Phillies, but I am going against the public in this one.

Both likely starting pitchers have pitched well in their last couple of starts against the opponent in this matchup, but the bullpen let them down, or the lineup didn't help. I expect Holmes to have the better outing against Nola, who was not sharp in his last start of the season. Besides the Braves’ lineup coming up clutch in this big game, another reason I am picking Atlanta is their bullpen. They rank fourth in the Majors in bullpen ERA while the Phillies only rank 21st.

The Braves will come up with the close win in Game 3 and move on to the NLDS, sending the rival Phillies home.

More Phillies vs. Braves Picks, Props and Best Bets

• Matt Olson to hit a home run: (+490, BetMGM) – While Olson has not gone yard in the last six games, he ranked sixth in the Majors this season in home runs, and Nola has given up the most home runs in baseball this season.
• Mauricio Dubon to record 2+ bases: (-111, FanDuel) – Dubon has 2+ bases in both games of this series and in his last six games has multi-hits in four of them.
• Braves monelyline after 5 innings:  (+120, FanDuel) – The Braves' lineup will get to Nola, which is why they will have the lead after the fifth inning.

You can learn all about prop betting in our prop betting guide.

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Phillies vs. Braves Broadcast Info

• Date: Thursday, October 1
• Start Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
• TV and Streaming Options: NBC, Peacock