Mets vs. Braves Prediction, Odds and Picks: Atlanta Takes Series Opener

In the opener of a National League East series on Monday night, the Atlanta Braves play host to the New York Mets. Our Mets vs. Braves predictions will give you our top picks as well as the pitching matchup and key information.

While the Mets (52-67) have won five of their last six games, they are still in the basement in the NL East, 19.5 games behind the Braves and 11 games out of the NL Wild Card.

The Braves won their last game to avoid a sweep, and before that series they had reeled off eight straight wins. They are atop the NL East 8.5 games clear of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies.

BetMGM Sportsbook has the Braves as the favorite in the series opener at -153 with the Mets at +125 and a total of 8.5 runs.

Money Can’t Buy Games 

While the Mets have the second-highest MLB payroll, they are 15 games under .500 and have the third fewest wins in the NL. However, they have been a thorn in the side for the Braves, taking six of 10 games facing them this season and beating them in two of three games in the most recent series in late July.

New York only ranks 23rd in the Majors in runs scored, but in the five wins in their last six games, they averaged 8.4 runs per game while being shut out in the lone loss.

In the Mets' last game, they routed the Pittsburgh Pirates 11-1, where Bo Bichette was 5-5 with three RBIs and Luis Robert Jr. had a home run and four RBIs. Bichette (.263, 11 home runs, 59 RBIs) leads the club in RBIs and has six in the last six games.

Juan Soto (.283, 21 home runs, 52 RBIs), who leads the team in home runs, and Mark Vientos (.211, 11 home runs, 35 RBIs) are both out for this game on the 10-day IL.

Mets’ Starter for Series Opener 

Christian Scott (3-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) takes the hill for Game 1 and in his last start gave up three runs in five innings in a 6-5 extra-inning win over the Cleveland Guardians. The Mets had lost his previous two starts, including one against the Braves, in which he allowed only one run in six innings. This season, Scott has 92 strikeouts and 32 walks in 74 1/3 innings.

Atlanta Avoids Brooms in Big Apple 

The Braves were in New York in their last series, taking on the Yankees, where they won the series finale 2-1 in 10 innings to avoid the three-game sweep. Atlanta only had four hits; Michael Harris II had the game-winning single in the 10th inning, and Matt Olson had a solo home run.

Atlanta has been balanced on the season, ranking fifth in runs scored and sixth in team ERA. Their pitching has been solid as of late, and since giving up 14 runs in a loss to the Mets in late July, they have allowed an average of 2.4 runs over their last 12 games.

The top six players in at-bats for the Braves all have at least 57 RBIs. Olson (.266, 34 home runs, 72 RBIs) ranks tied for second in the Majors in home runs and is batting .320 in eight games this month with five solo home runs.

Braves’ Starter for Series Opener 

Bryce Elder (8-6, 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) gets the nod for the Braves, and they have won four of his last five starts, including the last two where he gave up one run in each. His second-worst start of the season was facing the Mets in mid-June, where he gave up six runs in four innings. This season he has pitched 126 2/3 innings with 104 strikeouts and 42 walks.

Mets vs. Braves Prediction

Braves ML (-153 BetMGM)

The Mets are the hotter team lately, but the Braves have had consistent pitching over the last two weeks. Elder has only given up one run in each of his last two starts and will make up for his last start against New York, where he gave up six runs, with another solid outing. Scott has also been pitching well, and in the start before the last one New York lost to the Braves, he only gave up one run. Atlanta will get a close win in this opener, as they have the better lineup and have won eight straight home games.

Under 8.5 runs (-117) 

In the last two games of the last series these teams played, the total went Under, and that’s my pick in this game. Scott and Elder have been solid lately, and that will continue, and both of these teams rank in the top six in the Majors in bullpen ERA. For the third straight game between these bitter division rivals, it will be a low-scoring affair, so the Under is the good play.