Guardians vs. Rays Prediction, Odds and Props for Oct. 12: TB Takes Game 1

Guardians vs. Rays Odds

Here are the odds for the ALCS opener at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Moneyline: Guardians +138 / Rays -164
Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 runs (-128) / Under 6.5 runs (-104)
Run Line: Guardians +1.5 runs (-164) / Rays -1.5 runs (+136)

The Rays are the Game 1 favorite, and in this $100 moneyline example, you bet $100 on the underdog Guardians to win $138 and $164 on the favored Rays to win $100.

Learn more about the moneyline bet in our moneyline betting guide.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends

The Guardians are 11-4 in their last 15 games.
They are 5-1 in their last six road games.
They are 5-1 in their last six games as an underdog.
They have an Over record of 5-3 in their last eight games.

In the regular season, the Guardians lost five of their last six games against the Rays.

The top US sportsbooks will have the latest World Series odds.

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends

The Rays are 5-1 in their last six games.
They are 10-1 in their last 11 home games.
They are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite.
They have an Over record of 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

In the one series Tampa Bay faced Cleveland at home, they swept them in a three-game series, outscoring them 15-3.

Key Stats

Guardians

Runs Scored: 24th
Team ERA: 8th

Rays

Runs Scored: 12th
Team ERA: 7th

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Starting Pitching Matchup

Guardians

Foster Griffin (15-6, 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) takes the mound in Game 1 for the Guardians, and his lone ALDS appearance was a 2 2/3-inning relief outing where he allowed one run on two hits in a 9-3 win over the White Sox. Cleveland has lost two of his last three starts, and after getting shelled for eight runs in only 2 1/3 innings, he gave up only three runs in 10 innings in his last two starts. Griffin was an All-Star who did not face the Rays this season; he worked 172 2/3 innings, struck out 158 batters, and walked 45.

Rays

Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) gets the nod for Tampa Bay and was lights out in the 1-0 Game 1 win over the Yankees in the ALDS, tossing eight scoreless innings and only allowing one hit. The Rays have won his last 14 starts, which is pretty amazing, and he has not allowed more than one run in any of his last five starts.

He was also an All-Star this season, and in his first start against the Guardians, he gave up three runs in five innings in a loss; in his last start at home facing them, he pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing only one hit in a Tampa Bay win. This season, he ranked third in wins and WHIP and seventh in ERA, logging 172 innings with 174 strikeouts and 32 walks.

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Guardians vs. Rays Prediction: Rays ML -164

Both teams are hot, with wins in their last three playoff games. According to ESPN’s playoff MVP tracker, Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez, who has two home runs and seven RBIs in the postseason, and Rasmussen rank first and second.

While Griffin pitched well in his last two starts Rasmussen has been great. He tossed eight scoreless innings in an ALDS win and has allowed no runs in two of his last three starts. The Rays have won 14 in a row with him on the mound, and he'll do it again with another great outing and he is the main reason Tampa Bay will win and take a 1-0 series lead.

More Guardians vs. Rays Picks, Props and Best Bets

Drew Rasmussen 7+ strikeouts: (+149, DraftKings)– Rasmussen has double-digit strikeouts in the last two games and fanned nine the last time he faced the Guardians. (If you want the safer route, he is at -132 for 6+ strikeouts.)
Foster Griffin Over 3.5 strikeouts: (-104, DraftKings) – Griffin has struck out over 3.5 batters in each of his last three starts, and in his lone appearance in the ALDS, in 2 2/3 innings of relief he struck out seven.
Jonathan Aranda 2+ bases: (+140, BetMGM) – he hit .333 in the ALDS and had seven total bases in the three games.

If you want more information about prop bets then check out our prop betting guide.