Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds and Props for Oct. 6: SD Avoids Sweep

Written By Jason Green | Published at October 6, 2026

Brewers vs. Padres prediction for Game 3 of the NLDS. The Brewers are up 2-0 winning the first two games at home. — Sep 30, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta (27) reacts in the third inning against the Chicago Cubs during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers won both games of this NLDS at home and look to close out the series with a win over the San Diego Padres tonight. In this Brewers vs. Padres prediction, we cover everything from the latest odds and betting trends to the starting pitching matchup and some value prop bets.

Series Recap

The Brewers beat the Padres in Game 1, 3-2, where they were a little lucky, as San Diego’s Ty France hit what looked to be a two-run go-ahead home run in the ninth inning, but the ball hit the railing on the roof and came down on the warning track, where it was caught.

In Game 2, the Padres were one out away from a win with their star closer Mason Miller on the mound in the bottom of the ninth inning, but Jackson Chourio came up clutch with a two-run single with the bases loaded for the walk-off win. Chourio has two RBIs in each game in this series and hit a home run in Game 1.

Brewers vs. Padres Odds

Here are the odds for this NLDS Game 3 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Moneyline: Brewers +110 / Padres -133
Total (Over/Under): Over 7 runs (-117) / Under 7 runs (-102)
Run Line: Brewers +1.5 runs (-200) / Padres -1.5 runs (+165)

For beginners, let’s lay out the moneyline bet for this game where the Padres are the favorites. Using $100 as an example, you bet $100 to win $110 on the underdog Brewers and $133 to win $100 on the favored Padres.

For more information on moneyline betting, check out our comprehensive moneyline betting guide.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends

The Brewers are 7-0 in their last seven games.
They are 7-2 in their last nine road games.
They are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
They have an Under record of 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

In the regular season, the Brewers lost four of six games facing the Padres.

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San Diego Padres Betting Trends

The Padres had won four in a row and six of seven games before losing the first two games of the NLDS.
They are 8-1 in their last nine games as a favorite.
They are 11-1 in their last 12 home games.
In the four playoff games for San Diego, the Under record is 2-1-1.

In the Padres' last three games, the total has been posted at 7 runs; in the first two games it went Under, and in the last one it was a pick with seven runs scored.

The Fall Classic is not far off and the best sportsbooks in the US have the latest World Series odds.

Key Stats

Brewers

Runs Scored: 2nd
Team ERA: 2nd

Padres

Runs Scored: 15th
Team ERA: 10th

Starting Pitching Matchup

Brewers

Dustin May (7-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) takes the hill for Game 3 for the Brew Crew, and while they have won three of his last four starts, he has not lasted past the third inning in any of the last three starts where he gave up a total of seven runs. He came to Milwaukee in early September in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. In his second start for the Brewers, he faced the Padres and was solid in seven innings, allowing one run in a 4-3 loss. May faced San Diego twice with the Cardinals, giving up two runs in six innings in the first and nearly a no-hitter in the second, tossing a complete-game shutout while allowing only one hit.

On the season, May has worked 145 2/3 innings with 144 strikeouts and 50 walks.

Padres

Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) goes for the Padres, and in his last start in the Wild Card series he gave up one run in 3 1/3 innings in a 4-1 win over the Chicago Cubs. He missed nearly five months on the injured list and returned in early September. While he has not lasted past the fifth inning in any of his five starts after coming back from injury, the Padres have won them all, and he gave up more than one run only once; in that outing, he gave up two. This season, Pivetta has logged 34 2/3 innings, striking out 42 and walking eight.

Brewers vs. Padres Prediction: Padres ML -133

The Brewers are up 2-0 in this series with a little luck and clutch hitting in the last game. Pivetta has been solid since returning from injury, and while May hasn't been great in his last three starts, all of which were short; he has pitched well against San Diego this season and almost no-hit them in one outing. The bullpen will be key in this game, as the starters likely won't last long; this season, Milwaukee ranked third in bullpen ERA and San Diego ranked fifth.

I expect Pivetta to have the better outing, and this time the hometown Padres will get some clutch hits as they win and avoid the series sweep.

With the playoffs in full swing the best US sportsbooks have many betting markets for each game.

More Brewers vs. Padres Picks, Props and Best Bets

Nick Pivetta to allow 1 or fewer earned runs: (-129, DraftKings) – Pivetta has allowed more than one run in only one of his last five starts since returning from missing nearly five months with an injury
Nick Pivetta Over 3.5 strikeouts: (-164, DraftKings) – Pivetta has struck out over 3.5 batters in his last four starts and had four Ks in his last one where he only worked 3 1/3 innings.
Ty France to record 2+ bases: (+140, FanDuel) – France has recorded 2+ bases in four of the last five games, and the one game he did not was when he was robbed of a home run with it hitting the roof.

Our prop betting guide has a lot of key info for the popular betting market.