Astros vs. Rays Prediction, Odds & Props for Sept. 11: Tampa Clinches!

Written By Jason Green | Published at September 11, 2026

Astros vs. Rays prediction, props, and odds for Game 1 of AL series. With a win the Rays can clinch a playoff berth. — Sep 8, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero (13) hits a home run against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

In the first game of an AL series in the Sunshine State between a couple of division leaders, the Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros. We have you covered when it comes to the latest odds, player props, and starting pitching matchup in this Astros vs. Rays prediction.

The Astros (75-72) are coming off taking two of three games in their last series after losing two in a row. They are atop the AL West, three games clear of the Texas Rangers, and are the only team in the division over .500.

The Rays (87-89) are coming off a loss in their last game, and before that, had won four of five games. They have the best record in the AL and, in the AL East, are three games up on the second-place New York Yankees.

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Rays as the favorite in the series opener at -175 with the Astros at +144 and a total of 7.5 runs.

Great Pitching Leads to Astros’ Win After Barnburner Loss

After an 11-7 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of the Astros' last series, they got great pitching in Game 3 in a 2-1 win to take the series. Jhoan Duran and Cristian Javier combined to allow only three hits; Cam Smith hit a solo go-ahead home run in the ninth inning, and Taylor Trammell had an RBI.

While Houston ranks a respectable 13th in runs scored, they only rank 24th in team ERA. Over their last four games, they have averaged four runs per game.

Among all of the best US sportsbooks, Yordan Alvarez (.310, 38 home runs, 96 RBIs) is the massive favorite to win the AL MVP. However, he is slumping this month, batting .233 with one home run and two RBIs in eight games.

Cam Smith (.219, 20 home runs, 54 RBIs) had a home run in each of the three games of the last series and is batting .250 this month.

The Astros are over .500 and atop the weak AL West, but on the season, have a run differential of -40.

Houston Starter for Series Opener

Miguel Ullola (0-0, 3.86 ERA, 0.86 ERA) goes for Houston and will be making his first start of the season. He has shuffled from the minors to the Majors, and the Astros have lost all five of his relief appearances, where he totaled seven innings, giving up three runs, all of which came in one appearance. Ullola has 10 strikeouts and only one walk.

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Rays Can’t Clinch

The Rays could have clinched a playoff berth in their last game but lost 3-1 to the Atlanta Braves after winning the first two games of the series. In the loss, Tampa Bay only had five hits, and the only run came on a Victor Mesa Jr. pinch-hit solo home run.

This season the Rays rank tied for 11th in runs scored and eighth in team ERA.

Junior Caminero (.280, 39 home runs, 93 RBIs) ranks third in the Majors in home runs and has two, along with three RBIs, over the last five games.

While the Rays have a good lineup, it is not very balanced. It is top-heavy and has been carried by the three players with the most at-bats: Caminero, Yandy Diaz (.305, 22 home runs, 80 RBIs), and Jonathan Aranda (.277, 19 home runs, 86 RBIs).

Tampa Bay Starter for Series Opener

All-Star Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.88 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) goes for the Rays, and they have won his last nine starts, in which he gave up more than two runs in only one. One of his worst starts of the season came before the All-Star break against the Astros, when he gave up five runs in five innings in a loss. Rasmussen has logged 153 1/3 innings this season, striking out 156 and only walking 27.

Astros vs. Rays Prediction

Rays Moneyline (-175, DraftKings)

The Rays failed to clinch a playoff berth in their last road game, and they'll do it at home in this game. They have their best hurler on the mound in Rasmussen, who has been one of the best pitchers in the Majors in the second half. The Tampa lineup will get it done facing spot-starter Ullola and a Houston bullpen that ranks in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA. The Rays may be popping some champagne in the locker room after tonight's win, which will secure them a playoff spot.

Rays vs. Astros Player Prop Bets

Here are some good value player prop bets via DraftKings:

Drew Rasmussen 6+ strikeouts: (-132, DraftKings) – Rasmussen has struck out seven batters in each of the last two games, and Houston ranks 13th in Ks per game (8.20) and fanned 10 times in the last game.
Drew Rasmussen to record over 17.5 outs: (-124, DraftKings) – He has recorded over 17.5 outs in his last three starts.
Yandy Diaz 2+ bases: (+111, DraftKings) Diaz is batting over .300 on the season and has 2+ bases in six of the last nine games.