MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 29
The MLB playoffs are finally here, and Tuesday’s Wild Card slate gives us four games to enjoy. It's much tougher to find good MLB home run props to back in the postseason.
Cooler weather, sharper starting pitching, and managers emptying their best bullpen arms at the first sign of trouble create a brutal environment for home run bets. These are tiny, entertainment-level bets for me. There are no perfect matchups on this board, but we can still find a couple of hitters with prices worth a swing.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these MLB home run predictions and player props. Let’s get into it.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 29)
I've got two home run picks ready to roll to go along with a pitching prop for Tuesday's slate.
Before locking in your card, check starting lineups and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Miguel Vargas, +389
Houston is expected to use a bullpen game. That might be our best chance to find a home run on a slate loaded with difficult pitching matchups.
Houston’s bullpen was merely average during the regular season. The Astros carried an ERA above 4.00 and allowed 91 home runs. This is still the postseason, so Houston will not hesitate to deploy its best relief options in leverage spots. But a bullpen game also means more matchups, more pitchers, and more opportunities for a hitter with balanced splits to find a favorable situation.
Vargas fits that bill.
The 26-year-old had a career year from a power standpoint, finishing with 33 home runs. Twenty-one of those blasts came against right-handed pitching, but Vargas was also dangerous against lefties. He posted 12 home runs in only 170 at-bats against southpaws, producing a .535 slugging percentage.
That matters in October. Managers will aggressively chase platoon edges in the postseason. A hitter with a glaring weakness against one side of the mound can lose an at-bat or two late in games. Vargas is less likely to face that issue because he has shown real pop regardless of which arm Houston brings in from the bullpen.
Vargas ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected slugging percentage, the 88th percentile in barrel rate, and the 94th percentile in launch-angle sweet-spot percentage, according to Baseball Savant.
The former Dodgers prospect took time to find his footing in the Majors, but he now looks like a legitimate centerpiece for Chicago’s lineup.
Best Bet: Miguel Vargas To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +389
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Fernando Tatis Jr., +346
We are heading to Petco Park for the late-night hammer.
The Padres host the Cubs in the final game of Tuesday’s schedule, with first pitch set for 10 p.m. ET. Chicago will send Matthew Boyd to the mound, and while Boyd had a strong year, Fernando Tatis Jr. is in the kind of form that demands attention.
Tatis has been ripping the cover off the ball in September. He owns a .652 slugging percentage for the month with eight home runs, closing the regular season as one of baseball’s hottest power hitters.
He finished the year with 25 home runs, but the advanced profile suggests there could be more available.
Tatis has crushed left-handed pitching in 2026. Across 139 at-bats against southpaws, he posted a .583 slugging percentage with nine home runs and a .273 ISO. That is a serious split against a lefty starter, even one as solid as Boyd.
The Cubs’ bullpen does not provide a comforting fallback for Chicago, either. Cubs relievers allowed 89 home runs during the regular season, so Tatis could have an opportunity to do damage even if Boyd limits him early.
The Statcast metrics love Tatis. He ranks in the 99th percentile in expected batting average, 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage, 96th percentile in average exit velocity, and 98th percentile in hard-hit rate.
At +346, I'm willing to take the chance that Tatis gets a couple early looks at Boyd and finds one pitch he can lift.
Best Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +346
MLB Player Prop Today: Cam Schlittler To Record A Win, +167
Cam Schlittler takes the ball for the Yankees against fellow star youngster Payton Tolle in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium. Schlittler has been nothing short of excellent in 2026, finishing the regular season with a 14-6 record, 1.95 ERA, and 239 strikeouts. Tolle, meanwhile, went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 171 strikeouts for Boston.
Tolle absolutely has the talent to shine. The young southpaw brings real swing-and-miss stuff, and the Yankees will have to earn their offense. But pitching in the Bronx in a winner-take-all atmosphere brings a different level of pressure, and the Yankees profile surprisingly well against left-handed pitching.
New York ranked in the top 10 in wRC+ against lefties in September. Boston, meanwhile, ranked 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching during the month.
The win prop is rarely easy, hence the great odds. Schlittler can pitch well and still get a no-decision if New York’s bullpen lets a lead slip or if the Yankees fail to score early. That is why this is a price play, not a huge position.
But at +167, I am willing to take a shot. Schlittler has been dominant, the Yankees have home-field advantage, and Tolle gets a hostile environment.
Best Bet: Cam Schlittler To Record A Win DraftKings, +167
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonuses 170,000 GC + 7 SC Where To Bet On MLB Playoff Props
Before betting Tuesday home run props, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Even a small difference in pricing becomes meaningful over time, and postseason markets can move quickly as starting lineups and bullpen news become official.
You can also review the best sports betting apps for live betting, alternate props, and potential odds boosts.
The playoffs are awesome, but they are not always a great home run-betting environment. Teams shorten rotations, lean on high-leverage relievers, pull hitters for platoon reasons, and treat every at-bat like it is the biggest one of the year.
That does not mean we cannot have a little fun. It just means the stakes should reflect the difficulty. Keep it small, confirm the lineups, and enjoy the start of October baseball.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB props today!
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