MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 18
You've found my best MLB home run props for Sept. 18! Friday’s MLB slate has two power hitters in favorable matchups, plus a strikeout prop that I love. Let's dive into my top home run picks and player props for today.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Sept. 18)
I’m targeting Jo Adell, Kody Clemens, and Dylan Cease in spots where the matchup data points in the right direction.
Home Run Prediction #1: Jo Adell
We’ll start in Cleveland, where the Guardians host the Athletics at 7:10 p.m. ET. Jo Adell to hit a home run on DraftKings Sportsbook is my first MLB home run prop for Friday.
The most alarming number in Mason Barnett’s profile is not his ERA. It is the .307 ISO he has allowed to right-handed hitters across 379 pitches this season. That is a giant green light for Adell.
Barnett has logged 40.2 innings, so we are past the point of writing it off as a tiny sample size. Righties are slugging .560 against him, and they have hit seven home runs. His broader contact profile has pointed in the same direction, too: barrel rate allowed, hard-hit rate allowed, ground-ball rate, and average exit velocity allowed all paint a bad picture for a pitcher tasked with facing right-handed power.
Adell has 22 home runs this season, and he has found another gear lately. He has homered twice in his last four games and brings a five-game hitting streak into Friday. His power numbers vs. righties may not scream automatic bet, but form and matchup matter, especially with a power hitter facing a pitcher who has been repeatedly crushed by right-handed batters.
One mistake from Barnett can do it for us. With Barnett’s reverse-split problems and Adell’s current run, that mistake feels more available than usual.
Best Bet: Jo Adell To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +471
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES 
170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens will face Grayson Rodriguez when the Angels host the Twins at 9:38 p.m. ET, and this is the sort of matchup that makes a +432 home-run price impossible to ignore.
Rodriguez comes in with a 6.10 ERA, and the recent numbers are getting worse rather than better. He has surrendered 11 earned runs and four home runs over his past three starts. Some pitchers run into a rough patch. Rodriguez’s season-long profile says it is not that simple.
He ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA and fourth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. The former top prospect is also well below league average in ground-ball rate. That means hard contact is showing up often, and too much of it is arriving in the air. Not ideal when the hitter waiting for you has spent all year punishing right-handed pitching.
Lefties have slugged .542 against Rodriguez in 2026. He has also leaned on his fastball more than 50% of the time. That does not leave much mystery for a left-handed hitter when Rodriguez misses in the zone.
Clemens has had a genuine breakout year, with 26 homers overall and 21 against right-handed pitching. He is slugging nearly .500 against righties, which is not a coincidence when most of his pop has come with the platoon edge.
Everything lines up: a right-hander surrendering hard, elevated contact; a significant lefty power split; and a hitter who has made righties pay all season. At +432, Clemens is worth a shot to run into one.
Best Bet: Kody Clemens To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +432
Before locking in a plus-money home run prop, compare current prices across the top MLB betting sites.
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES MLB Player Prop Today: Dylan Cease Strikeouts
For my MLB player prop Friday, I’m backing Dylan Cease over 7.5 strikeouts at +117 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Blue Jays have not had many bright spots this season. Last year’s World Series appearance already feels like a long time ago, even with Toronto still sitting just two games back of a Wild Card berth.
Cease has absolutely been a bright spot. He has been elite throughout 2026, ranking in the 95th percentile in whiff rate and the 98th percentile in strikeout rate, according to Baseball Savant. He also owns a 2.38 ERA backed by a 2.79 expected ERA.
Texas is a favorable matchup for a strikeout prop. Since Sept. 1, the Rangers have posted the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and rank just 25th in wRC+ against righties. That is a lineup swinging and missing often while failing to create much consistent offense.
Cease has the strikeout profile to take advantage of Texas today. He gets a Rangers lineup that has struggled to put together crooked numbers against opposing right-handers, and the plus-money price makes the over even more appealing.
Best Bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +117
Before you bet, compare current pricing across the best sports betting sites, particularly when looking at home run props and pitching markets.
There are 15 games on the slate, and we're at the point of the season where every pitch matters. Buckle up. October baseball is right around the corner. Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB best bets today!
-
MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Sept. 18
-
UFC 331 Odds and Predictions: Will Van Defeat Pantoja Again?
-
Genius Sports Launches Prediction Markets Comparison App
-
US Senate Race Prediction Markets: Key States, Favorites
-
NCAAF Houston vs Texas Tech Predictions, Odds and Picks for Friday: Expect Points in West Texas
-
Play $5 Get $50 Bonus on Eagles vs Titans NFL: Use Underdog Code [bonus-code operator="2162" section="dailyfantasysports"]