MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 7
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Wednesday, Oct. 7!
The Division Series is in full swing, and we’ve got some great matchups on tap. There are still talented pitchers on the mound, but let’s see if we can find a few spots to attack.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook prices for my picks today. Let’s get into my best MLB predictions.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 7)
These are entertainment-sized bets, as I’ve been preaching throughout the playoffs.
A favorable starting matchup can disappear quickly once a manager turns to the bullpen. That’s why I’m interested in hitters who can remain a threat when the opposing team changes pitchers.
We’ll start on the South Side of Chicago, where the White Sox host the Guardians. Later, the Yankees host the Rays in the Bronx, with Max Fried facing Nick Martinez as New York tries to climb out of a 2-0 series hole.
Before placing your home run bets, confirm lineups, pitching plans, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Miguel Vargas
I’m rolling with Miguel Vargas to hit a home run at +425 on DraftKings.
Cleveland is starting Daniel Espino, but this isn’t a matchup where I’m counting on the starter to pitch deep into the game. Espino is working as an opener, so Vargas could see multiple pitchers as the Guardians try to extend their season.
That’s part of what I like about this selection.
My angle isn’t solely built around Vargas getting one specific matchup all afternoon. I like his ability to remain dangerous whether Cleveland brings in a right-hander or a left-hander.
We haven’t heard much from Vargas in the postseason yet, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to move away from him. Sometimes, on these short playoff slates, you have to trust the hitter rather than search for a perfect matchup that doesn’t exist. He's still seeing the ball well, drawing multiple walks in each of his last two games.
His advanced profile gives me a reason to take the swing. According to Baseball Savant, Vargas posted a 13% barrel rate this season. That’s the kind of power indicator I’m looking for when betting someone to leave the yard. The rest of his batted-ball profile is unreal. The kid has the ingredients to be a star after a slow stint with the Dodgers.
I’m looking for a hitter who can still produce loud contact later in the game, not just someone who might get a favorable first at-bat. We might not get many opportunities against Espino, and the Guardians have options behind him. I’m comfortable backing Vargas rather than trying to predict exactly how every inning will unfold.
At +425, he’s my first small home run bet Wednesday.
Best Bet: Miguel Vargas To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +425
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Ben Rice
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
Or something like that. I have a hard time not going back to Ben Rice at +313.
The Yankees are in a 2-0 hole, and their offense needs to change in a hurry. Rice hasn’t been the problem. He hit two home runs in the Game 2 loss, accounting for all of New York’s scoring in the 5-2 defeat.
He’s been on a continued rampage after finishing the regular season with 41 home runs. Through four postseason games, he already added four more.
It’s a shame the rest of the lineup hasn’t given him more help. From a home run betting perspective, though, I’m not going to ignore the guy who keeps crushing the baseball.
Nick Martinez gets the ball for Tampa Bay. He had a strong regular season, finishing with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP across 180 innings. This isn’t a matchup where I’m pretending the opposing pitcher is bad.
But nothing about it makes me want to avoid Rice.
Martinez struck out just 15.1% of hitters during the regular season. He also allowed 13 home runs to left-handed hitters, giving us an opening to back a left-handed power bat.
Rice has been one of my favorite hitters to revisit, and his recent production makes that decision easier. He doesn’t need the rest of the Yankees to wake up for this bet to cash. He just needs to continue doing what he’s been doing.
At +313, I’m taking another small swing as New York tries to keep its season alive.
Best Bet: Ben Rice To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +313
MLB Prop Pick: Max Fried Under 4.5 Strikeouts
My pitching prop today is Max Fried under 4.5 strikeouts at -121 on DraftKings.
Don’t get me wrong: I love Fried. He’s a fantastic pitcher, and it’s entirely possible he pitches well while finishing below this number.
His contact suppression is excellent. According to Baseball Savant, Fried allowed a 2.4% barrel rate and a 29.8% hard-hit rate this season. Opposing hitters don’t consistently square him up.
But preventing dangerous contact and piling up strikeouts aren’t the same thing.
Tampa Bay finished the regular season with an 18% strikeout rate, the lowest in baseball against left-handed pitchers. With the Yankees facing elimination, I also expect an all-hands-on-deck approach. If they need the bullpen, they’ll use it.
Fried can give New York a strong outing without dominating the strikeout column. That’s the distinction behind this bet, and I’m taking the under.
Best Bet: Max Fried Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -121
Before betting, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Keep the stakes small, confirm the lineups, and enjoy another day of October baseball.
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