MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 5
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Monday, Oct. 5! We have two American League Division Series games on the schedule Monday. The White Sox lead their series 1-0 and visit the Guardians at Progressive Field, while the Yankees battle the Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay enters Game 2 with a 1-0 series lead after a 1-0 win in Game 1.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these MLB playoff picks and player props. Let’s get into it.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 5)
This is a two-game playoff slate, which means limited options and little margin for error. Bullpens are rested, managers have their best high-leverage arms available, and starters can be removed at the first sign of trouble.
These are entertainment-sized bets. Keep the stakes sensible, confirm lineups, and make sure the pitching plans have not changed before placing any wagers.
Before locking in your player props today, check confirmed starters, lineups, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Jo Adell
We will start in Cleveland, where the Guardians host the White Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS.
Anthony Kay is expected to open for Chicago. Kay is a left-hander who has had some success against left-handed hitters, but his numbers against right-handed hitters have been much more vulnerable.
Kay struck out 26% of left-handed hitters this season, compared with only 14% of right-handed hitters. He also allowed a .195 ISO to righties, which is close to the .200 threshold that starts to stand out when looking for home run hitters.
That makes Jo Adell an appealing long-shot option.
Adell has been a left-handed pitching masher for quite some time. After his post-hype breakout, he posted a .599 slugging percentage against lefties this season, with 14 home runs in only 172 at-bats.
According to Baseball Savant, he also ranks in the 97th percentile in bat speed and sits well above league average in expected slugging percentage and average exit velocity. Those are the types of metrics I want to see when betting a home run prop: a hitter who can square up the baseball and generate enough bat speed to do damage, even against talented pitchers.
This is the postseason, so no matchup is easy. Both teams will have their high-leverage bullpen options ready, and Kay may not work deep into the game if Chicago moves quickly to its bulk relief plan.
Still, this is a small-slate spot where I am willing to take a swing. Adell’s numbers against left-handed pitching are more than worth a look at +500.
Best Bet: Jo Adell To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +500
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Ben Rice
Next, we head to Tampa Bay. The Rays turn to Freddy Peralta in Game 2 against the Yankees, and I like Ben Rice to hit a home run at +360 on DraftKings.
Peralta was Tampa Bay’s midseason acquisition, and he has been up and down throughout the year. His final regular-season ERA was 4.42, and he gave up 17 home runs to left-handed hitters.
That is the split that stands out when looking at Rice.
Peralta leans heavily on his four-seam fastball. He threw the pitch more than half the time to opposing hitters in 2026, regardless of whether he was facing a left-handed or right-handed batter.
The Yankees have a lineup capable of hitting fastballs. They can get themselves into trouble when they chase, particularly against pitchers with high-end breaking stuff, but they also have hitters who can square up four-seam fastballs when they get a pitch in the zone.
Rice is arguably the best four-seam fastball hitter in baseball this season. That makes this a fantastic spot for him to do damage, even against a recognizable name such as Peralta.
The Yankees used eight left-handed hitters in their Game 1 lineup, so Peralta could again face a lefty-heavy group Monday night. Rice should be in the middle of that conversation as New York looks to even the series.
Best Bet: Ben Rice To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +360
MLB Prop Pick: Freddy Peralta Under 14.5 Outs
I am going to double down in the Yankees-Rays game with Freddy Peralta under 14.5 pitching outs at -141 on DraftKings. This is a competitive number, but I wouldn't be surprised if Peralta doesn't complete five innings Monday.
The Yankees can handle fastballs, and Peralta’s four-seamer is the pitch he relies on most. That makes this a difficult matchup, especially against a New York lineup that can stack left-handed hitters and attack the part of Peralta’s profile that has been most vulnerable.
The Rays already have a Game 1 win, and there is little reason for Kevin Cash to let Peralta work through major trouble if Tampa Bay has an opportunity to take a commanding series lead or keep a close game within reach.
On top of the off day between games, Drew Rasmussen went deep into Game 1, so most of Tampa Bay's pen is more than fully rested.
Best Bet: Freddy Peralta Under 14.5 Outs DraftKings, -141
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonuses 170,000 GC + 7 SC Where To Bet MLB Props
Before betting Monday’s home run props and pitcher props, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Home run odds can vary dramatically from one sportsbook to another, and an extra 20 or 30 cents of value is important when betting on home runs.
You can also compare the best sports betting apps for alternate lines, live betting markets, and potential odds boosts.
The postseason is the best time of year for baseball, but it is not the easiest time to bet player props. The best pitchers are pitching, the best relievers are entering games earlier, and managers are doing everything possible to limit clean matchups.
Keep it small, confirm lineups and pitching plans, and enjoy another huge day of October baseball. Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB props today!
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