MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 4
Welcome back to my top MLB home run props and player props for Sunday, Oct. 4!
The Division Series is rolling, and we have another strong day of playoff baseball. The Dodgers and Braves continue their series in Los Angeles, while the Padres and Brewers square off in Game 2 of their NLDS matchup in Milwaukee.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these MLB playoff picks and player props. Let’s get into it.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 4)
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the home run bet I am considering in Milwaukee, while Blake Snell’s strikeout over and Michael King’s strikeout under are my preferred pitching angles.
This is still the postseason, so the usual warning applies: Home run betting becomes incredibly difficult once the calendar turns to October. Teams have their best relievers available, managers have a much quicker hook, and every at-bat gets tougher when the game matters this much.
These are entertainment-sized bets for me. Keep the stakes sensible, confirm lineups, and make sure the pitching plans have not changed before placing any wagers.
Before locking in your card, check confirmed starters, lineups, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr., +393
Fernando Tatis Jr. is the first home run prop I am looking at Sunday.
The Padres visit the Brewers at American Family Field, with Logan Henderson scheduled to start for Milwaukee. San Diego is on the road, which means the Padres are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat if they are trailing or the game is tied.
That extra plate appearance matters in home run betting. In the postseason, clean opportunities can be hard to find, especially once the game turns over to high-leverage bullpen arms.
Tatis has been a monster down the stretch and into the playoffs. His September slugging percentage was well above .650, and the advanced metrics remain outstanding. He's simply one of the more dangerous power hitters in baseball when he is locked in.
That makes it difficult to go away from him, even in a difficult October environment. And it's only a two-game slate, with not much to pick from. The Brewers have plenty of quality bullpen arms, and Tatis may need to do his damage early. But that's true for almost every hitter in the Division Series.
If you are going to take a small swing, Tatis remains a reasonable player to back.
Best Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +393
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170,000 GC + 7 SC MLB Prop Pick: Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts, -135
Next, we head to Los Angeles.
The Dodgers host the Braves, with Blake Snell expected to start for Los Angeles. I like Snell to go over 6.5 strikeouts at -135 on DraftKings.
You can say what you want about Snell’s health history. The 33-year-old has dealt with injuries during his career and has not always been able to stay on the mound for a full season.
But when he's healthy, the ability has never been the question.
Snell threw only 42 2/3 regular-season innings in 2026, but the stuff has remained elite. He posted a 31% strikeout rate with strong chase and whiff numbers, while also limiting barrels, hard contact, and average exit velocity.
If he qualified, Snell would rank in the 95th percentile or better in nearly every major advanced pitching category, according to Baseball Savant. The Dodgers also need length from their starter.
Los Angeles used Tarik Skubal for six innings in Game 1, then called on Brock Stewart, Alex Vesia, Tanner Scott, and Evan Phillips out of the bullpen. The relievers are talented, but the Dodgers would much rather have Snell work deep into the game than burn through their high-leverage options again.
Atlanta can be pesky at the plate. But Snell is one of those pitchers who can dominate any matchup when he is healthy and has his command. If there is a reason to keep him in the game, he has the pure strikeout stuff to get to seven punchouts.
At -135, I think the over is a fair bet.
Best Bet: Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -135
MLB Prop Pick: Michael King Under 5.5 Strikeouts, -145
The final prop brings us back to Milwaukee.
Michael King gets the ball for San Diego against the Brewers. King had a good season, posting a 3.21 ERA, but his strikeout profile is not particularly impressive.
He recorded 159 strikeouts during the regular season. That is well below a strikeout per inning, and it lines up with his below-average strikeout rate. King ranked in the 38th percentile in strikeout rate, while his whiff rate and chase rate were also below league average, according to Baseball Savant.
King can absolutely pitch well. He can limit runs, mix his arsenal, get weak contact, and give San Diego a quality start. But effective pitching does not automatically mean piling up strikeouts.
The Brewers have been one of the tougher teams to strike out all season. They compete in at-bats, put balls in play, and do not hand opposing pitchers many easy punchouts.
The Padres also have an elite bullpen. If King runs into any trouble or his pitch count gets too high, San Diego has no reason to push him through the lineup a third time in a postseason game.
Best Bet: Michael King Under Strikeouts DraftKings, -145
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Before betting Sunday’s home run props and pitcher props, compare prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Home run odds can vary dramatically from one book to another.
You can also compare the best sports betting apps for available alternate lines, live betting markets, and potential odds boosts.
The postseason is the best time of year for baseball, but it's not the easiest time to bet player props. The best pitchers are pitching, the best relievers are entering games earlier, and managers are doing everything possible to limit clean matchups.
Keep it small, confirm the lineups and pitching plans, and enjoy another huge day of October baseball. Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB props today!
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