MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 3
Welcome to my best MLB home run props today! We have made it to the Division Series, and all eight remaining teams will be in action Saturday after a day off Friday.
I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook odds for these MLB home run predictions and player props. Let’s get into it.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (Oct. 3)
This is the postseason. Most teams have their best relievers rested and available, managers will turn to high-leverage options quickly, and the starting-pitching board is loaded. As of late Friday, none of the announced starters carried an ERA higher than 3.61 during the regular season.
That means smaller unit sizes. These are entertainment-sized bets for me, and this is not a day to force action just because every series is starting.
Before locking in your card, check confirmed starters, lineups, and the latest MLB odds.
Home Run Prediction #1: Junior Caminero
The Yankees visit the Rays at Tropicana Field at 6:30 p.m. ET, and Gerrit Cole is scheduled to take the mound for New York.
Cole has had plenty of big-game moments throughout his career. He's still capable of putting together a strong outing, and this is not an automatic spot to attack him.
But there are reasons to be interested in a Rays power hitter.
Cole has been a fly-ball pitcher at different points of his career, and he doesn't have the same swing-and-miss profile he once did. He ranked in the ninth percentile in ground-ball rate and sixth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed this season, according to the supplied Baseball Savant data.
His strikeout rate also stood well above both his chase rate and whiff rate. That doesn't mean Cole cannot strike hitters out Saturday. It does suggest there may be some regression risk in his profile.
Caminero is the kind of hitter who can take advantage. The Rays' third baseman is coming off a star-level season and has been one of baseball’s better reverse-splits power hitters. He's largely matchup-proof, but he has also shown the ability to do real damage against right-handed pitching.
It's October, the Yankees have elite relievers, and Tampa Bay will be facing a pitcher with major postseason experience. But Caminero offers enough raw power to make him the Rays hitter I want to consider if you are betting a home run market in this matchup.
Best Bet: Junior Caminero To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +332
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonuses 
170,000 GC + 7 SC Home Run Prediction #2: Jackson Chourio
The late-night game takes us to Milwaukee, where the Brewers host the Padres.
Robbie Ray is the probable starter for San Diego. He has historically been a fly-ball pitcher when he isn't striking hitters out. He has been one of baseball’s better strikeout arms for much of his career, but he is later in his career and does not have the same overwhelming stuff he once did.
Against right-handed hitters, Ray struck out 19% during the 2026 season and allowed a .203 expected ISO, according to the supplied matchup notes. That creates a reasonable path to target a right-handed power hitter.
Chourio is the right hitter for that job.
He hit 25 home runs during the regular season, and the underlying metrics suggest there could be even more power available as he develops. He ranks among the game’s better hitters in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity.
Chourio has also been excellent against left-handed pitching, posting a .575 slugging percentage against southpaws.
The main concern is obvious. The Padres have one of the best bullpens in baseball, so Chourio may need to do most of his damage early against Ray.
Best Bet: Jackson Chourio To Hit A Home Run DraftKings, +404
MLB Pitching Prop Today: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Cole can still strike hitters out. His regular-season strikeout rate was respectable, and he has the experience to handle a postseason environment. But the underlying indicators are not as convincing as the raw strikeout rate.
Cole’s whiff rate and chase rate have both been well below his strikeout rate this year. That is a potential regression concern, especially against Tampa Bay.
The Rays have been one of the stingiest teams in baseball when it comes to strikeouts across the entire season. They compete in at-bats, put pressure on pitchers, and do not hand out easy punchouts.
Cole could pitch well and still fall short of six strikeouts. Tampa Bay can extend at-bats, get his pitch count up, and force Boone into a decision before Cole reaches the sixth inning.
Best Bet: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -164
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonuses 170,000 GC + 7 SC Where To Bet MLB Props
Before betting Saturday’s home run props, compare available prices at the leading MLB betting sites. Even a slight difference on a plus-money home run price can matter, especially in a high-variance market where the odds are already long.
You can also compare the best sports betting apps for live betting, alternate player props, and potential odds boosts.
The postseason is an incredible time for baseball, but it is a tougher environment for betting home runs. Pitching staffs are deeper, managers are quicker with the hook, and the best relievers can appear in the sixth inning if the matchup requires it.
Scale your bets accordingly, confirm starters and lineups, and enjoy the start of the Division Series.
Good luck, and let’s cash some MLB props today.
-
MLB Home Run Props and Predictions Today: Top Player Props for Oct. 3
-
UFC 332 Predictions, Odds and Picks: Wins for Silva, Talbott & Williams
-
MLB Parlay Picks Today: Best Playoff Bets for Oct. 3
-
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 3: Are the Bulldogs Finally Back?
-
Sweet Sweeps Sweepstakes Casino's New Streak Builder: Get 12 SC + 60 FS
-
Polymarket Gets House in Order with New User Protections