2022 MLB Win Totals Vs. PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections

Written By Staff on March 29, 2022
2022 mlb win totals

After the lockout, Major League Baseball’s opening day is now April 7. That doesn’t leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals.

Two of the more popular and respected projection systems – Pecota and FanGraphs – have already released their win totals for each team. We’ll take a look at which teams Pecota and FanGraphs differ most with the books’ numbers in search of potential betting value. Click on the odds below to bet now.

2022 MLB Win Totals: BetMGM/Caesars vs. Pecota/FanGraphs

 BetMGMCaesarsPecotaFanGraphs
Dodgers96.597.510196
Yankees91.592.598.790.6
Blue Jays91.591.591.192.6
White Sox91.591.591.588.6
Astros91.592.590.690.3
Braves90.590.591.891.9
Mets90.590.591.188.8
Rays89.589.585.486
Brewers88.588.593.289.8
Padres88.587.591.389
Red Sox85.585.585.886.2
Phillies85.584.586.487.4
Cardinals85.585.580.182.7
Giants85.585.577.884.9
Mariners84.585.583.379.7
Angels83.584.588.482.1
Twins80.580.585.881.6
Tigers78.578.567.475.4
Guardians76.575.577.677
Marlins76.575.577.780.2
Royals75.575.569.474.6
Cubs75.574.571.975.4
Rangers74.574.570.873.9
Reds74.575.578.974.5
Athletics71.571.565.471
Nationals71.570.570.971.5
Rockies67.569.566.966.3
D-Backs66.565.572.869
Pirates65.564.565.668.8
Orioles62.562.561.364.2

Biggest Differences At Pecota

New York Yankees –

At BetMGM, the New York Yankees win total is 91.5. However, the market standard for the Yankee win total is far lower than Pecota’s projection. Pecota projects the Yankees should win 98.7 games, a 7.2 win differential compared to BetMGM’s projection.

My expectation for the Yankees this upcoming season is very much in line with the win total forecasted by Pecota for a couple reasons. Although the Yankees did not make many significant moves in the offseason, their former ace Luis Severino will be returning to the rotation alongside two-time Cy Young runner-up Gerrit Cole. In the 2021 season, the Yankees’ rotation struggled mightily, but I expect it should improve substantially with Severino coming back.

In addition to the rotation’s one-two punch, the Yankees were able to add three-time All-Star Josh Donaldson, who should further add to its already impressive home run hitting ability. They will also have both OF Aaron Hicks and 3B Miguel Andujar returning to the starting lineup after both played less than 50 games last season.

In 2021, the Yankees underperformed relative to its preseason expectations, finishing third in the AL East, winning 92 games.

Detroit Tigers –

At both BetMGM and Caesars, the Tigers’ win total is at 78.5, an eight-game difference compared to Pecota, which projects Detroit to win 67.4 games. Despite Hinch’s ball club’s several off-season moves, including the signing of former New York Mets shortstop Javy Baez and former Red Sox SP Eduardo Rodriguez, I personally cannot comprehend why the market projects the Tigers to win 79 games this season. It would be the highest that the team has won in more than a decade.

Outside of OF Akil Badoo coming off an outstanding rookie campaign, the Tigers lineup is not particularly impressive and I do not expect there to be any significant increase in its offensive production. Last year, the Tigers did not have a single player hit more than 25 home runs, 85 RBIs and a .280 batting average. I expect this lack of efficiency and offensive output to continue into the 2022 season.

Los Angeles Angels –

At BetMGM, the Angels win total sits at 83.5, which is nearly five wins above Pecota’s forecasts of 88.4 wins. That said, there are a number of potential reasons for the difference between the two.

One is the signing of former New York Mets starter Noah Syndergaard. The Angels’ now have an impressive one-two punch atop their rotation, as Syndergaard is likely to be their No. 2 SP behind Shohei Ohtani, who exploded in his second season. Also, the Angels expect both 3B Anthony Rendon and OF Mike Trout, both who spent the majority of the 2021 season on the Injury List, to be ready to play.

Oakland Athletics –

BetMGM and Caesars agree on an Athletics win total of 71.5, a 6.1 win differential compared to Pecota’s forecast of 65.4.

Upon losing both Matt Olson and Matt Chapman to free agency this past offseason, Pecota projects that the loss of its star infielders will have a far greater impact on the team’s success in the 2022 season than what the win total is line at BetMGM and Caesars. The market may be significantly underestimating the impact of losing arguably its two best players.

2022 World Series Futures

Biggest Differences At FanGraphs

Seattle Mariners –

The Seattle Mariners have a pretty substantial 2022 MLB win totals differential at the books vs. FanGraphs. At BetMGM, the Mariners win total is 84.5, a 4.8 differential with FanGraphs’ 79.7 wins.

In 2021, the Mariners won 90 games, significantly outperforming their preseason win total in the market. Despite signing 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and former Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez, Seattle may still be overvalued in the market.

Chicago White Sox –

BetMGM and Caesars both have the Chicago White Sox lined at 91.5 wins, nearly three wins above the FanGraphs forecast of 88.6.

Prior to 2021, the White Sox lineup was put on a pedestal. Many people expected them to win at least 90 games. Fortunately, they were able to live up to the hype while finishing the regular season with a 93-69 record, despite a number of early-season injuries. Within the first month of the season, Chicago lost arguably its two best hitters, outfielders Eloy Jiminez and Luis Robert. The White Sox still made the playoffs behind the bat of star SS Tim Anderson.

Considering all the injury difficulties the Sox had and their ability to still make the postseason, I’m unsure why FanGraphs is projecting Chicago to win only 88.6 games.

Pittsburgh Pirates –

Over the last decade, the Pittsburgh Pirates have consistently been one of the worst teams in baseball. Fortunately for the Pirates, their losing ways have allowed them to stack up on big prospects. At Caesars, the Pirates 2022 MLB win totals line for the upcoming season is 64.5, a difference of 4.3 compared to Fangraphs’ forecast of 68.8.

In 2022, baseball fans may catch their first glimpse of a Pirates team with a promising future. After playing less than 100 games in the 2021 season due to injury, the Pirates biggest prospect, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, will start the 2022 season on a mission to prove himself as one of the best young hitters in all of Major League Baseball.

In addition to Hayes, the Pirates’ infield features two more auspicious prospects – SS Oneil Cruz and Cole Tucker. In the 2021 regular season, Tucker only played in 40 games, tallying 26 hits in addition to 12 RBIs and two home runs. The former first-round pick will look to improve on those numbers in 2022, where he expects to play the entire season in the big leagues for the first time in his young career.

On the other hand, SS Oneil Cruz (one HR, two RBI in three games last year) will also look to prove himself as one of the best young SS in the game. Cruz’s unique 6’7″, left-hitting stature make him one of the most fascinating young players in all of Major League Baseball.

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