MLB Wild Card Odds: 3 Betting Angles To Consider

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 7, 2022
MLB Wild Card Odds

Since the postseason has finally arrived, let’s dissect where the value lies among MLB Wild Card odds. Bettors can certainly wager on which team will win a given series, but these angles center around single-game bets. I’ll hit on three of the four matchups: Cardinals at Phillies, Blue Jays at Mariners, and Mets at Padres.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

In a surprising turn of events, Cardinals starter Jose Quintana will take the mound to open this series. Miles Mikolas was initially expected to get the nod, but he’ll throw on Saturday instead.

Not only do the Phillies possess a pitching edge with Quintana’s counterpart Zack Wheeler (3.10 xERA), but their lineup also delivers the sixth-highest wRC+ against lefties. Quintana — a southpaw — doesn’t showcase reverse splits. His 33-year-old stuff is no longer overpowering, either, insinuating that he’s primarily a contact pitcher.

Hence, Philadelphia’s bats should have success outside of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, especially because it exhibits a top-10 run value versus the fastball and curveball — Quintana’s top-two pitch types (via Baseball Savant).

Moreover, Rob Thompson’s refined bullpen, adding veteran closer David Robertson at the trade deadline, has performed slightly greater than St. Louis’ arms in the second half. It doesn’t help that Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley is dealing with a finger injury.

I’d back the Phillies up to -110 on the moneyline. Keep an eye on their MLB Wild Card odds with Aaron Nola in Game 2 as well.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners

When I placed this bet on Thursday morning, Mariners ML was priced at +128, giving them a 43.86% implied probability to win Game 1.

As dominant as Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah has been throughout the 2022 campaign, Luis Castillo and the Mariners are a bit undervalued. Despite his inconsistent outings in September, Castillo’s 3.07 FIP is just eight points higher than his ERA.

That proves that he’s pitched up to expectations overall. His four-seam fastball velocity (97.1 mph) is still at an elite level, too.

In regards to this matchup, Seattle’s offense boasts a top-10 run value against fastball and sinkers — Manoah’s most recycled pitches of late. Unlike Castillo, Manoah’s four-seam velocity isn’t backbreaking. If Julio Rodriguez — the eventual American League Rookie of the Year — and his teammates are able to lay off his sweeping slider, they should be able to pick their spots.

Plus, Scott Servais’ core relievers are rated higher than John Schneider’s bullpen pieces. As of late Thursday night, the best available number on Mariners ML is .

New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Although the MLB Wild Card odds above are for Game 1, I’m targeting Saturday’s affair with the Padres’ Blake Snell.

The 29-year-old hasn’t rediscovered every bit of his 2018 AL Cy Young form, yet he’s been stellar nonetheless. Snell’s 2.19 second-half ERA is backed by a 2.23 FIP and a 33.8% strikeout rate — the fifth-highest percentage among starting pitchers.

Couple that with the the Mets’ wRC+ sitting 10 points lower against lefties than the other way around. Outfielder Starling Marte (finger), who’s been a hyperefficient against southpaws this season, could miss the entire series as well.

New York manager Buck Showalter noted that Jacob deGrom (blister) won’t start Game 2 if his teams wins on Friday. Instead, he’ll trot out Chris Bassitt, who’s obivously more vulnerable (3.66 FIP), in a clinching scenario.

As long as the Padres fall in Game 1, plan on backing them the next day. If not, I’ll reassess, depending on their MLB Wild Card odds.

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