Futures Market Has Dodgers, Yankees As Clear Trade Deadline Winners

Posted By Mo Nuwwarah on July 30, 2021

Baseball reporters and fans can finally breathe. The 2021 MLB Trade deadline has passed after dozens of deals shifted a ton of players — crucial and otherwise — around the league.

With the dust having settled, it’s time to take a look at how the futures market has reacted. Which teams saw their prices lengthen and shorten? Looking at the net market impact tells the story of who won and lost the 2021 MLB trade deadline, at least in terms of immediate World Series equity.

The Chart: Which Teams’ Odds Moved After The MLB Trade Deadline?

Without further ado, a look at the MLB futures board as of Friday afternoon. We’ll use the prices from FanDuel Sportsbook since they correlate with The Lines’ futures board. Changes are relative to July 25 prices.

Keep in mind that when placing your own bets, you may be able to find better prices than this via line shopping. Use The Lines‘ World Series odds page to find the best prices.

TeamJuly 25 PricePost-Deadline PriceImplied Probability Change
Dodgers+390+300+4.69%
Astros+450+480-0.94%
Padres+1000+1100-0.76%
Rays+1600+1400+0.79%
Yankees+2100+1800+0.71%
Athletics+2400+3100-0.87%
Blue Jays+2200+2700-0.78%
Braves+6000+5500+0.15%
Phillies+6000+5500+0.15%
Reds+6500+9000-0.42%
Guardians+8500+20000-0.66%
Nationals+9000+40000-0.85%
Angels+11000+12000-0.07%
Cardinals+11000+15000-0.24%
Cubs+12000+20000-0.33%
Mariners+24000+15000+0.25%

Dodgers, Yankees Trending Up

It may not represent the biggest shift in terms of dollar risked versus dollars won, but in terms of World Series probability, nobody moved the needle more than the LA Dodgers. The high-profile additions of another ace in Max Scherzer and a down-ballot MVP contender in Trea Turner give the defending champs possibly the best bat and best arm moved at the deadline.

In a less-heralded move, they also added Royals lefty Danny Duffy. Though he’s been slowed by injury, Duffy has produced at a very solid level this year. His 14.6% swinging strike rate and 3.39 FIP are career bests. He should soak some innings while the starters are hurt then slot into bullpen in the playoffs.

Despite remaining three games behind the Giants, the Dodgers now sit at to win the division. Everyone else in contention will hope they are forced into the Wild Card.

The Yankees are staring at an uphill climb just to make playoffs as they’re 3 1/2 games out of the Wild Card. However, they got aggressive, dealing for sluggers Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo.

Well, the latter looks like more of a former slugger these days with an ISO under .200 for the second straight year. But, he can still help a Yankees lineup deficient in left-handed bats.

Like the Dodgers, the Yanks also added a lower-profile arm. They picked up Andrew Heaney from the Angels, a high-strikeout lefty (10.82 K/9) who has consistently struggled to turn his talent into results.

The Yankees look to have one of the strongest rosters, but they have quite a bit of ground to make up. The division looks nearly out of reach. So, the Yankees’ odds remain long at .

Padres, A’s, Jays Among Losers

When some teams’ odds go up, other must go down.

Naturally, LA’s arch rivals down I-5 saw their chances drop a bit. The Dodgers’ increased strength alone makes things tough on the San Diego Padres, but they also chose not to make any huge trades themselves.

Furthermore, the San Francisco Giants added former MVP Kris Bryant. The NL West is just a meat grinder at the moment. At 5 1/2 back, the Pads look ticketed for the Wild Card at best and may face the aforementioned pumped-up Dodgers. At to win the West, they have their work cut out for them.

A consequence of the Yankees’ increased strength is that their closest competition in the AL Wild Card race lost championship equity.

The Toronto Blue Jays added Jose Berrios and and some bullpen help, but that pales in comparison to the Yankees’ adds. Their offense makes them potentially scary as a playoff opponent but shows how far they have to go.

It’s similar story for the Oakland A’s. They made one big add in Starling Marte and got some pieces on the margins, but the Astros are 5 1/2 up in the division. The A’s are just to catch them.

The Cubs, Nationals and Guardians also fell off in the markets after selling off pieces, but they had slim odds in the first place.

Others Steady Despite MLB Trade Deadline Additions

Other clubs in contention saw their odds fail to budge one way or the other. Either the market doesn’t think their additions move the needle, or there’s a net-zero effect compared to the additions of rival teams.

The Chicago White Sox beefed up their bullpen big time by raiding the crosstown Cubs. Their biggest adds may come from getting injured players healthy, though. With AL Central odds of , they likely felt more secure than anyone.

The New York Mets grabbed former MVP candidate Javier Baez. However, he cratered offensively with a 57 wRC+ last year. He recovered somewhat this year but a league-average bat won’t move the needle much.

The preseason longshot Giants made the aforementioned Bryant add but it seems that has only offset what they lost in equity to the Dodgers. The NL West race will bear watching down the stretch.

Boston and Milwaukee, considered fringe contenders in the preseason, have solidified themselves with some solid additions. Boston filled a huge hole at first with Kyle Schwarber. Milwaukee, running away with the NL Central at , made a slew of additions in the pen and infield.

We’ll see which moves look shrewd and which prove fruitless as the stretch run to the playoffs plays out.

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