MLB Today’s Best Bets: Home Run Picks and Top Player Props on October 5th
After a thrilling four-game Saturday schedule, the MLB Divisional Series has just a pair of games today, which will be played side-by-side with the Sunday NFL slate.
We've scoured through the data and are thrilled to provide you with what we believe are the MLB's best bets at the best odds. Today, we'll list our favorite home run props, our best player props, and sprinkle in some of our favorite home run parlay picks as well.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Home Run Pick: Daulton Varsho (+600 via FanDuel)
- Home Run Pick #2: Aaron Judge (+200 via FanDuel)
- Home Run Pick #3: Aaron Judge 2+ HRs (+1680 via DraftKings)
- Home Run Parlay: Varsho, Judge (+1691 via FanDuel)
- Player Prop Pick: Trey Yesavage 4+ strikeouts (-261 via DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Aaron Judge 2+ hits, o8 runs (+256 via FanDuel)
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New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days At this time of the year, there are hardly any good pitching matchups to be had, as teams want to push their top pitchers throughout the postseason. The Yankees have Max Fried on the hill today, who dazzled once again in 2025, finishing the regular season with an eye-watering 2.86 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays roll out 22-year-old Trey Yesavage, one of the season's most fantastic and romantic stories. Yesavage has defied incredible odds to start ALDS Game 2 after beginning the year in Class A Dunedin, earning four promotions in the last six months.
If Yesavage brings his A-game in front of the Toronto faithful, expect him to own the Yankees with his nasty split-finger fastball, which helped him strike out nine Tampa Bay Rays in his MLB debut. Don't expect a long outing, however, as he has yet to go longer than five innings in his three MLB starts and only pitched six innings once in his 25 starts in the minors.
Although the Blue Jays needed every win to pip the Yankees for the AL East title and the number one overall seed in the American League, Yesavage hasn't faced a lineup like the Yankees. Facing the Rays twice and the Royals is no comparison to a Game 2 start where you can put a hammerlock on a series against your biggest threat.
If Yesavage folds to the pressure, expect AL MVP front-runner Aaron Judge to have a spectacular game at the dish. He's seeing the ball incredibly well, going 2-for-4 in three of his four postseason games. He'll be salivating to get a chance to bat against an inexperienced arm and could make him pay.
Even though Fried is one of the top dogs, the Blue Jays are no slouches either, putting up 4.96 runs per game in 2025, 4th in all of baseball and 2nd in the AL, only to the Yankees (5.17 rpg). One man that he'll have a tough time dealing with is Daulton Varsho, who had himself a 20-HR campaign despite missing more than half the season due to multiple injuries.
Varsho being at +600 to hit a home run is actually bonkers after going yard 20 times in just 271 plate appearances in 2025. He got his postseason off to a flying start, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk in yesterday's 10-1 rout and will look to keep the momentum going.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
- Home Run Pick: Kerry Carpenter (+390 via FanDuel)
- Player Prop Pick: J.P. Crawford 3+ total bases (+700 via FanDuel)
- Home Run Parlay: Kerry Carpenter, Julio Rodriguez (+2700 via DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Tarik Skubal 13+ strikeouts, u6 runs (+1100 via DraftKings)
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win This one has all the makings of a classic pitchers' duel. On one hand, you have the probable back-to-back AL Cy Young award winner, Tarik Skubal, feeling heavily motivated to put on a show in the city that made him. On the other hand, Luis Castillo has a 2.60 ERA at home, going up against a Tigers lineup who have fared 62 points less against right-handed pitchers in the OPS department this season.
If anyone can dominate Castillo at the dish today, it's Kerry Carpenter. He's a career 1-for-5 with a HR vs. Castillo and crushes righties, banging off an .812 OPS against RHPs this season (as opposed to .638 OPS vs. LHPs). Carpenter went yard off George Kirby yesterday, and he could be the one who sets the tone for Detroit.
Skubal, the Seattle University product, always wants to put on a good show at T-Mobile Park, and expect him to put on the performance of a lifetime. He's never thrown for fewer than 8 strikeouts in three career starts in Seattle. If the game remains close, which I suspect it might, expect Skubal to go deep into the game to give the Tigers the best chance at going up 2-0 in the series.
The existing Mariners players have hit for a combined .223 vs Skubal, so hits may be hard to come by. However, J.P. Crawford is a career 4-for-5 against Skubal, while Julio Rodriguez hit a bomb off him in their last meeting.
As always, shop around for the best odds before you put any money down. That's the easiest edge you can gain.
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