MLB Today’s Best Bets for October 20th: Home Run Picks and Top Player Props

It may be cliché, but it still rings true: 'Game 7' are the two best words in sports. One final game to decide who will move on to the World Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, and who will make early vacation plans.

The Seattle Mariners and the Toronto Blue Jays have brought us one of the best series that baseball has seen in years. It's been an absolute rollercoaster of a series, and it's only fitting that it should be decided tonight.

The two teams aren't hiding their plans, as George Kirby and Shane Bieber are set to take the hill tonight. With two Monday Night Football contests and ALCS Game 7, your betting apps will be jam-packed with hidden value. We're here to provide some insights using research and data to bring you today's best bets.

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays

• Home Run Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+341 via DraftKings)
• Player Prop Pick: Shane Bieber 7+ Strikeouts (+266 via DraftKings)
• Home Run Parlay: Guerrero Jr., Cal Raleigh (+1350 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
• ALCS MVP: Guerrero Jr. (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)
• Best Parlay: Toronto -1.5, Bieber 6+ Strikeouts, Guerrero 1+ Hits, George Springer 1+ Hits, Ernie Clement 2+ Hits (+2259 via FanDuel)
• Best Bet: Toronto -1.5 (+158 via FanDuel)

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In the 2-3-2 format, if a team has won Game 6 at home, they have gone on to also win Game 7 an eye-watering 14 out of 18 times (77.7%) since 1985. The Blue Jays also posted a 54-27 record at home during the regular season, the second-best home record in baseball behind only the Philadelphia Phillies.

This is the reason the Blue Jays went and got Shane Bieber at the trade deadline. After all the trials and tribulations, he is going to get the ball for the biggest game of his life.

"It's been a culmination of a lot of events and dominoes to get to this point," Bieber said after officially getting the nod. "But now I get the ball tomorrow, and I'm extremely excited for it. This is what I love to do, and I'm grateful for every opportunity."

Bieber was in control of ALCS Game 3, shutting down the Mariners to the tune of two runs on four hits and eight strikeouts as he put in six innings of work en route to a crucial Blue Jays victory.

The 2020 Cy Young winner has the trust of Toronto manager John Schneider, who believes Bieber is the perfect guy to put out there for a situation like this.

"I think when you get into this situation, a historical game for the franchise, you want a guy that's kind of been there," said Schneider. "You want a guy who has a super high sense of awareness in the moment. That's exactly why we traded for him.

"I said it before, it was kind of a quiet, I don't want to say quiet acquisition at the deadline, because he was hurt, but this is what we envisioned."

On the other end, George Kirby will get the start in what's the biggest game in the Mariners' franchise history. Seattle is looking to clinch its first-ever World Series berth.

While the Blue Jays got to Kirby in Game 3, there's a reason why Seattle put him out there: They wanted Kirby to pitch Game 7.

“Super honored. Going to go out there and give it my best,” Kirby said. “I love pitching under pressure and am super glad I’m able to get Game 7.”

Though the series has been extremely even, all signs point to Toronto heading to its first World Series since they won it all in 1993. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on fire over the last four games with nine hits and three homers. We like him to have another big game in a Blue Jays win, sealing the ALCS MVP race.

Mandatory Photo Credit: ID: 313232936 by Roxana Gonzalez on Shutterstock