MLB Today’s Best Bets for October 15th: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Written By Blaise Bourgeois | Last Updated at October 15, 2025
The MLB's final four teams are getting closer to being whittled down to two after the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers jumped out to 2-0 series leads. Tonight's ALCS Game 3 could be Toronto's last chance to make this a series. It's also one of the only domestic offerings, outside of four NHL games, that sportsbooks have to offer tonight, as it's a Wednesday in October before the NBA season starts.
Shane Bieber and George Kirby square off in what could be an incredible Game 3 showcase as the series heads to T-Mobile Park in Seattle, where the Mariners look to take an important step toward their franchise's first World Series appearance. Toronto's bats will be looking to take over and secure a win in a virtual do-or-die to avoid going down 3-0.
Despite the lack of offerings, there's still plenty of value hidden in your betting apps, so let's get you all set up for an exciting night of ALCS playoff baseball!
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
- Home Run Pick: Anthony Santander (+650 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Player Prop Pick: J.P. Crawford 1+ hits (-123 via DraftKings)
- Home Run Parlay: Anthony Santander, Eugenio Suarez (+3300 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Best Bet: Under 7 runs (-105 via Caesars Sportsbook)
New Customers: Bet $5+ Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins + 3 Months of League Pass On Us! If you look back at our article from October 10th, during Kirby's last start, we highlighted his historic strikeout-to-walk ratio. Naturally, he fired off five innings of three-hit, one-run baseball in ALDS Game 5, where he struck out six and issued no free passes to help lift the Mariners over Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers.
Tonight, he goes into yet another high-pressure start, where he can help the Mariners take a virtually unstoppable 3-0 series lead. In addition, Kirby has fared much better historically against Blue Jays batters than the Tigers. While Toronto batters have enjoyed a career .281 (18-for-64) batting average against Kirby, they've only been able to ding him for six extra-base hits, leading to a less-than-ideal .741 OPS. They've also struck out 11 times vs. his one walk allowed.
While those numbers might be impressive, Shane Bieber's are even more so, having absolutely stymied Mariners batters throughout his career over a much larger sample size. Seattle batters have only managed a .229 career batting average combined against the 30-year-old righty, managing only three extra-base hits (one home run) in 114 plate appearances. If the meager .538 OPS allowed wasn't impressive enough, Bieber has an eye-watering 44 strikeouts in those 114 plate appearances against just five walks.
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We can expect a grueling pitcher's duel tonight, with Bieber looking like the clear winner on paper. If anyone can get to him, it might be J.P. Crawford, who is a career 6-for-12 (.500) against him. You can avoid Mitch Garver, who is a career 3-for-21 (.143) with 13 strikeouts. On Toronto's side, Anthony Santander may be your best bet for batting theatrics, posting a solid 6-for-15 (.400) with two HRs and 5 RBIs in his career against Kirby. Though he missed Game 2, he's leaning toward being available tonight.
Mandatory Photo Credit: ID: 2618697661 by tommaso re on Shutterstock
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