MLB Today’s Best Bets for October 12th: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
With the Milwaukee Brewers using the long ball to defeat the Cubs and clinch their place in the NLCS, the MLB's final four teams are set in stone. Fortunately, baseball fans don't need to wait long for the action to commence as Game 1 of the American League Championship Series kicks off tonight.
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The Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners have been two of baseball's most exciting all-around teams, and this seven-game series will almost certainly be a battle for the ages.
With all the star power both at the dish and on the mound, theatrics are abound, starting with tonight's phenomenal pitcher's duel between Bryce Miller and Kevin Gausman.
Ahead of tonight's game, we've pored through the data to find you the best MLB odds, so you don't have to waste time comparing different sportsbooks. We've done all the work for you, so boot up your favorite betting app and let's get to work!
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Home Run Pick: Cal Raleigh (+235 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Player Prop Pick: Bryce Miller Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-114 via DraftKings)
- Home Run Parlay: George Springer, Eugenio Suarez (+2200 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Best Bet: Toronto -1.5, 1+ hits from Josh Naylor, Randy Arozarena, Eugenio Suarez, and Raleigh (+2017 via FanDuel)
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On paper, the matchup is not very good for Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller. He's working off four days' rest and facing a team that's historically bashed him around. Toronto's hitters are a career 13-for-39 (.333) against Miller with a .934 OPS and just four strikeouts. In fact, in Miller's only start against Toronto this year, they drilled him for seven runs on eight hits - his worst start of the year.
Miller's three starts from four days' rest have been a mixed bag. His first, which came back in April when he was healthy, he threw five innings of three-hit shutout baseball and earned his first win of the season at Cincinnati. His second, which came in September, he gave up four runs in 5.2 innings but struck out a season-high 11 batters in LA against the Angels. Finally, his third start game in game 162, where he was pulled after giving up four runs in four innings against the Dodgers.
Take that for what you will, but Miller has averaged far less than a strikeout per inning (0.82) in 2025 and only pitched six full innings once in 19 starts, including the postseason. Frankly, I see him getting thrashed and being pulled pretty early.
Mariners hitters, meanwhile, only hit .245 off of Gausman in 143 combined at-bats with a .688 OPS. Gausman finished the regular season 11th in baseball with a 1.06 WHIP (walks and hits per inning). Don't let his 10-11 record fool you: he's got electric stuff and should have a great performance tonight.
Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, and Josh Naylor all have career .300 batting averages or better against Gausman, with Raleigh hitting three home runs in just 14 career at-bats. They'll be vital to Seattle's success at the plate.
Featured Image Mandatory Photo Credit: ID: 2532024131 by Conor P. Fitzgerald on Shutterstock
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