MLB Today’s Best Bets for October 10th: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Written By Blaise Bourgeois | Last Updated at October 13, 2025
After 162 games and two rounds of the MLB playoffs, it all comes down to Friday night as the Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers in a do-or-die ALDS Game 5. The winner, of course, will take on the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Championship Series.
Last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers walked it off in the 11th to beat the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 and clinch their place in the NLCS, while the Chicago Cubs blanked the Milwaukee Brewers 6-0 to force a Game 5.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
- Home Run Pick: Riley Greene (+550 via BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Player Prop Pick: Tarik Skubal 10+ Strikeouts (+100 via Caesars Sportsbook)
- Home Run Parlay: Riley Greene, Randy Arozarena (+3800 via DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Detroit ML, under 5.5 runs, Skubal 10+ Strikeouts, Riley Greene 1+ RBI (+1632 via FanDuel)
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Pitching Dominance
The sportsbooks believe tonight's contest will be a low-scoring battle, and who can blame them? Likely back-to-back AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal faces off against George Kirby, who simply does not like to issue walks. In fact, Kirby has a career 6.68 K/BB ratio over 637.2 career innings pitched, which would be the best in MLB history if he qualified (1000 IP). Jacob DeGrom is the current all-time leader with 5.37 K/BB.
Skubal has arguably been the best pitcher in the world over the past two years and is enjoying a terrific postseason. In his two postseason starts, he owns a 1.84 ERA, giving up just 8 hits, 4 walks, and 3 runs while striking out 23 batters in 14.2 innings. He has had to dig deep into the tank, having thrown 204 pitches across his two starts, leaving many wondering if he'll have it in him to go the distance again tonight. Tigers fans shouldn't worry, however, as he is one of the rare pitchers in baseball today to consistently pitch deep into the game. In fact, Skubal has thrown fewer than 90 pitches five times in 2025, with two of those being 87-pitch outings, and one, an 80-pitch start, was the season opener.
All the betting apps are confident that Skubal will strike out at least 9 batters, with over 8.5 strikeouts offered from -150 to -172, depending on where you look. I reckon he'll go for at least 10, but don't be surprised if he has a historic performance and goes well beyond.
Who Will Be the Hero?
Though the Mariners certainly have their work cut out for them, there's plenty of hope in that dugout. After all, they did win Game 2 with Skubal on the hill facing a potential 2-0 series deficit. Jorge Polanco took him yard twice, Cal Raleigh is in fine form, and they have a potential secret weapon in Randy Arozarena. Five years ago, Arozarena had one of the most electric postseasons in MLB history with 10 home runs. Arozarena was an All-Star this year and has been somewhat quiet at the dish. Perhaps it's Randy's time to shine again tonight?
At the dish for Detroit, we love Riley Greene having a breakout Game 5. After going hitless in Games 2 and 3, an 0-for-9 "slump" with 8 strikeouts, Greene woke up with a big home run. Greene's mammoth huge 454-foot blast put the Tigers up 4-3 en route to a Game 4 win. Those slumpbusters are crucial for a player with a clutch gene like Greene, and we imagine he's in for an incredible game tonight.
Mandatory Photo Credit: ID: 2337941107 by Conor P. Fitzgerald on Shutterstock
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