MLB Today’s Best Bets for April 7: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Tuesday's slate has some sneaky value across the board, and we're taking a look at the best MLB bets today for April 7. We've got a strikeout prop on one of the game's best arms, a plus-money outs bet at Coors Field, and home run picks today against a lefty who can't keep the ball in the park against righties. Let's get to the action!

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for April 7

Paul Skenes under 6.5 strikeouts is one of my favorite MLB player props today, and you can get it at +102 on DraftKings Sportsbook. I know it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy taking an under on Skenes, but if you covered up the pitcher's name and just looked at the numbers, this makes a lot of sense.

Skenes bounced back nicely against the Reds in his last start, pitching five innings and striking out five on just 77 pitches. In a very tiny sample size, he's only striking out 20% of hitters this season — well below his 29% clip in 2025. Those numbers will see positive regression, but perhaps not today. Maybe he'll be limited to 85 or 90 pitches despite no word of a hard cap? I feel like there would have been no reason for him to stop pitching against the Reds.

The bigger piece is the matchup. The Padres are extremely stingy against right-handed pitching from a strikeout perspective. Ramon Laureano is the only hitter in the projected lineup to strike out more than 25% against righties across 2024 and 2025, according to AddMoreFunds. Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth have all struck out less than 20% during that stretch.

I'll take better than even money in a stingy matchup where he could be limited in April, making this pick one of the best MLB bets today.

Best Bet: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +102

MLB Player Props: Mike Burrows Over 15.5 Pitching Outs

Next up on my best MLB bets today card is Mike Burrows, and I'm taking over 15.5 pitching outs on DraftKings Sportsbook at +121. The plus money is the real treat here.

The right-hander was roughed up against the Angels but still pitched 5.2 innings, which cleared this prop line. Against the Red Sox, he threw 84 pitches in five innings. He's thrown 94 and 84 pitches, respectively, and this Rockies lineup simply isn't very good — even at Coors.

Colorado ranks 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, dead last in walk rate, and they're striking out at the seventh-highest clip against righties. The Rockies are last in pitches per plate appearance at 3.65, per Baseball Reference. All of this data puts Burrows in an intriguing spot to hit at least 16 outs. If you're hunting for today's top MLB player prop picks, this pick is one of my favorites today due to the price and matchup.

Best Bet: Mike Burrows Over 15.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings,+121

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Home Run Picks Today: Ronald Acuna Jr.

Let’s attack MLB home run bets today with one of the game's best hitters. The Atlanta Braves take on southpaw Yusei Kikuchi tonight, and I like Ronald Acuna Jr. at +360 on FanDuel Sportsbook. In this day and age, it's tough to get good odds on home run props, and I don't think +360 is high enough for what Acuna brings to the table.

Kikuchi threw his fastball and slider roughly 68% of the time to righties in 2025, who posted a combined .225 ISO against those pitches. He gave up 23 of his 24 home runs to right-handed hitters. The fly-ball splits are night and day — just 27% against lefties, but 43% against righties. He also gave up a hard-hit rate 7% higher to righties with a higher pull-air rate as well.

Acuna had an expected ISO better than .200 against southpaws in 2025. I believe he should be priced inside +300 — that's not the case at +360 today. After analyzing all of the possible home run picks today, Acuna is standing out to me.

Best Bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +360

That wraps up my best MLB bets today card and today's top MLB HR picks. Good luck!

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