MLB Today’s Best Bets for April 21: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
We're back hunting for the best MLB bets today on Tuesday, April 21! We've got a pair of pitching props and home run picks today that should have Chase Field humming. Let's get into it.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for April 21
Foster Griffin under 4.5 strikeouts is one of my favorite MLB best bets today at -114 on FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm honestly surprised the odds are this generous.
The knock on Atlanta the last couple of years was that you could rack up strikeouts against this lineup, but that narrative is dead in 2026. The Braves have been the sixth-best team from a strikeout perspective against left-handed pitchers so far this season, punching out at just a 19.4% clip, per Fangraphs.
Per Baseball Savant, Griffin profiles as slightly below average in whiff percentage and strikeout rate, and fairly below average in chase percentage. He also ranks in just the 10th percentile in fastball velocity this season.
Atlanta doesn't grade out as a free-swinging lineup against southpaws, and Griffin's stuff doesn't force hands. The Braves are right at league average in pitches per plate appearance, which helps build a case for this prop. Six Braves hitters are projected to roll out with strikeout rates of 20% or lower against left-handed pitching this season. That's a tough battle for a pitcher with Griffin's profile.
Best Bet: Foster Griffin Under 4.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -114
MLB Player Props Today: Shane Baz Over 16.5 Pitching Outs
Shane Baz over 16.5 pitching outs is one of my top MLB player props today at -121 on DraftKings Sportsbook. This is a get-right spot for a pitcher we know is extremely talented.
Baz has thrown 98, 99, and 99 pitches respectively across his last three outings. H's clearly stretched out and has the upside to hit 100-plus if he's clicking. Kansas City ranks just 24th in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching in 2026.
That's a shocking number for a lineup that features Bobby Witt Jr. near the top. Meanwhile, the Orioles' bullpen was taxed yesterday after using six relievers, which means the Orioles should lean on Baz deeper into this game. Everything here points toward six innings pitched, unless things get ugly.
Best Bet: Shane Baz Over 16.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, -121
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5+ Get $100 in Bonus Bets Instantly! Home Run Picks Today: Ketel Marte
For my MLB home run bets today, I'm targeting the Arizona Diamondbacks against White Sox starter Sean Burke at Chase Field. The friendly confines always help, as the weather is just gross in other spots across the country, and the Diamondbacks carry a nice implied run total from Vegas today.
Burke is off to a solid start in terms of allowing barrels — but I'm not buying it. Last season, per Baseball Savant, he ranked in just the 17th percentile in barrel rate and the 20th percentile in ground-ball rate. This year, he's throwing his fastball 46% of the time to left-handed hitters while yielding an expected ISO of .303 on that pitch against them, per AddMoreFunds. That is Ketel Marte's wheelhouse.
Marte is my favorite of the home run picks today +360, but Corbin Carroll at +430 and Adrian Del Castillo at +680 are both worth a sprinkle in this matchup if you want to spread it around.
Best Bet: Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +360
Good luck Tuesday — let's cash some MLB best bets today!
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