MLB Today’s Best Bets for April 18: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

We had a massive Friday, and we're back hunting for the best MLB bets today for Saturday, April 18. We have a pair of strikeout unders and home run picks today targeting a future Hall of Famer who's showing his age. Let's get into it.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for April 18

Paul Skenes under 6.5 strikeouts leads our MLB player props today list at -130 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The thing about Skenes is he doesn't have to punch out a billion batters to absolutely dominate an opponent. Part of his maturation as a pitcher is realizing he can be extremely efficient and work deep into games without a gaudy strikeout total.

We're dealing with small sample sizes in 2026, but Skenes has struck out just 20% of lefties compared to 30% of righties so far. That number will settle somewhere in between by season's end, but Tampa Bay is projected to roll out five left-handed hitters against him today.

Chandler Simpson is leading off and has struck out less than 5% of the time vs. RHP this season. Jonathan Aranda has struck out just 20% of the time against righties. Jake Fraley and Cedric Mullins have both been extremely stingy as well — Mullins is striking out at just a 7% clip so far in 2026 against right-handed hurlers.

Just like yesterday's pick on Bubba Chandler, I'll cite that Tampa Bay is striking out at the lowest clip in baseball against right-handed pitchers this season. Regression will come at some point, but right now the trend and the matchup both support this under. One of the best MLB bets today.

Best Bet: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -130

MLB Player Props Today: Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts

Yusei Kikuchi under 4.5 strikeouts is one of my favorite MLB best bets today due to +110 odds on DraftKings. Kikuchi is volatile with a wide range of outcomes, but the plus-money number against the San Diego Padres is appealing.

There's a long-term trend here. Kikuchi just doesn't punch out a ton of right-handed hitters. In 2025, he struck out nearly 28% of lefties but just 21% of righties. This season, those numbers are 24% against lefties and 20% against righties, according to AddMoreFunds.

The Padres are projected to roll out eight right-handed hitters against him, and seven of them struck out at a 20% clip or lower against left-handed pitchers in 2025. With less wiggle room on a 4.5 line, you need the matchup to be right, and this one is. I'm locking in Kikuchi as one of my MLB player props today.

Best Bet: Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +110

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Home Run Picks Today: Ketel Marte

I'll pick on Max Scherzer for some MLB home run bets today. He's been pretty rough this season. In 2025, left-handed hitters posted a .289 ISO against him with a nearly identical expected ISO, which means it was true power, not just luck.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte steps in from the left side against Scherzer, and this matchup lines up nicely. Marte posted a .231 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season, and that number is up to .245 so far in 2026.

Per Baseball Savant, his average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage are both above the 80th percentile, while his hard-hit rate and bat speed sit in the mid-70th percentiles. He's swinging a really nice stick.

Marte is simply a great player in a great matchup against a future Hall of Famer that Father Time has caught up with — at least during his bouts against left-handed hitters. Corbin Carroll also stands out in this matchup.

Best Bet: Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +320

That wraps up the best MLB bets today, including today's top MLB HR picks. Good luck Saturday!

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