MLB Today’s Best Bets for April 17: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props

Friday is here, and we're breaking down the best MLB bets today for April 17! We've got a strikeout under, an outs over, and home run picks today at one of the smallest ballparks in baseball. Let's get into it.

Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for April 17

Bubba Chandler of the Pittsburgh Pirates under 4.5 strikeouts is one of my favorite MLB player props today to target. You can grab this one at -104 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Chandler has serious long-term upside, as his fastball velocity ranks in the 99th percentile via Baseball Savant. But the underlying numbers tell a different story right now.

His whiff percentage sits at the 68th percentile, which is solid, but he's roughly league average in chase percentage and ranks in the 6th percentile in walk rate this season. He's also giving up a decent clip of fly balls and ranks in the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate. Chandler is striking out just 22% of hitters so far in 2026, and while his ERA is 3.86, his expected ERA is 5.59, which tells us he's gotten a bit lucky.

The Rays have struck out the least in baseball against right-handed pitchers this season at just 17.9%, per FanGraphs. That's a tough road for Chandler today. The elite fastball velocity means anything could happen, but at -104 on the under, the odds and the matchup data are on our side. This is one of the best MLB bets today.

Best Bet: Bubba Chandler Under 4.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, -104

MLB Player Props Today: Edward Cabrera Over 15.5 Outs

Edward Cabrera over 15.5 pitching outs at -122 on DraftKings Sportsbook makes my list of MLB best bets today. The Mets are off to an absolutely woeful start in 2026 — ranking toward the bottom in pretty much everything against right-handed pitching.

Over the last week, across 138 plate appearances, the Mets rank dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching by a considerable margin. They're also dead last in walk rate and striking out at the second-highest clip in baseball during that stretch vs. RHP. Just brutal.

Cabrera is known to throw a lot of pitches and can get himself into trouble. He completed just five innings against the Pirates in his last start and has walked eight batters across his last two games. That's a risk. But with the Mets' lack of offense and their inability to draw walks against righties, there's a real opportunity for Cabrera to be efficient in the early innings and record at least one out in the sixth. If you're hunting for today's top MLB player prop picks, this one has value at -122.

Best Bet: Edward Cabrera Over 15.5 Pitching Outs DraftKings, -122

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Home Run Picks Today: Munetaka Murakami

Now for the MLB home run bets today portion of the card. We're heading to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, where it's projected to be at least 70 degrees, which is solid hitting weather at a tiny ballpark.

Nick Kurtz is probably the most likely player to homer in this game, but his odds are only +240 on FanDuel, so let's look at the other side. I like Munetaka Murakami of the Chicago White Sox at +390 against Athletics starter Aaron Civale.

Civale ranks in just the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate so far this season, gives up a roughly league-average barrel rate, and doesn't keep the ball on the ground consistently. His cutter is the pitch he throws most to left-handed hitters across the last two seasons, and lefties have posted a .266 ISO against it.

We don't have a massive sample on Murakami yet, but his world-class power is the exact reason the White Sox brought him in. He owns a .273 ISO against right-handed pitchers so far this season. At +390 in this ballpark and this matchup, the price is right.

Best Bet: Munetaka Murakami to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +390

That's a wrap on the best MLB bets today, including today's top MLB HR picks. Good luck Friday.

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