MLB Today’s Best Bets for April 16: Home Run Picks & Top Player Props
Thursday's slate has some generous lines, and we're breaking down the best MLB bets today for April 16. We've got strikeout overs at plus money and home run picks today on a bat that's heating up. Let's get into it.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props for April 16
Chase Burns of the Cincinnati Reds cracks the list of MLB player props today. You can get over 6.5 strikeouts at +105 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Burns was demolished in his last start, but this line seems generous across the industry at 6.5.
The Giants strike out at a stingy 20% clip against righties this season, and Luis Arraez strikes out at a single-digit clip. But Burns' stuff is too good to fade at plus money. He still ranks in the 93rd percentile in whiff percentage on Baseball Savant this season. In seven MLB appearances with at least 75 pitches dating back to last year, he's cleared 6.5 strikeouts in all of them.
He also hit 92 pitches against the Angels despite getting hit around, so the leash is long. Tough matchup, but at plus money, this is one of the best MLB bets today.
Best Bet: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts DraftKings, +105
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5+ Get $100 in Bonus Bets Instantly! MLB Player Props Today: Jack Leiter Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Next up on the best MLB bets today card is Jack Leiter over 5.5 strikeouts at -108 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The ballpark isn't ideal — Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is a nightmare for pitchers — but the matchup is strong from a strikeout perspective.
Leiter's stuff has taken a substantial jump — he ranks in the 94th percentile in whiff rate and 80th in strikeout rate on Baseball Savant. He punched out 17 hitters across his first two starts before getting knocked around by the Dodgers.
The A's are striking out at the second-highest clip in baseball at 27% against righties, per FanGraphs. Nick Kurtz struck out 28% against righties last season, Max Muncy struck out 30%, and if Denzel Clarke is in the lineup, he struck out 38% in 128 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in 2025. If you're hunting for today's top MLB player prop picks, Leiter is in a great get-right spot.
Best Bet: Jack Leiter Over 5.5 Strikeouts FanDuel, -108
Home Run Picks Today: Jackson Merrill
This is mostly a price play on a trending hitter. Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres at +490 on FanDuel Sportsbook is one of my favorite MLB home run bets today. He'll square off against Luis Castillo of the Seattle Mariners.
Castillo has lost a step but remains an innings eater. He threw his fastball 40% of the time to lefties last year, who posted a .225 ISO against it. Predictible pitchers are one aspect I looked for when hunting for MLB home run picks today.
Merrill had a .226 ISO and .240 expected ISO overall vs. RHP last year, with strong numbers against right-handed fastballs. He's in a zone right now — a home run last Sunday and extra-base hits in four straight games. Per Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 80th percentile in barrel rate and 79th in hard-hit rate. At +490, these odds are hard to pass up.
Best Bet: Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run FanDuel, +490
That wraps up the best MLB bets today, including today's top MLB HR picks. Good luck!
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