MLB Spring Training Odds: Betting Angles To Watch For, Including Cubs Vs. Dodgers
Pitchers and catchers have reported, and spring baseball is finally here. After a long winter that involved the rich mostly getting richer, MLB spring training has arrived. The first game takes place on Feb. 20, matching the Cubs and Dodgers. The MLB season proper begins on March 18, featuring those same clubs in Japan. Most teams start their campaigns on March 27.
Let's look at a few spring training storylines bettors can monitor before betting MLB odds this year.
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Things TO Watch For In MLB Spring Training
Pitcher Velocities
It's generally folly to take anything too seriously in spring training. To borrow from "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" the points don't matter. Everything is made up. Generally, teams and players will care more about working specific skills or pitches than the outcome of the games.
Pitcher velocities, however, can potentially carry some signal. Fastball velocity can indicate a pitcher's progress and whether he might be working through an injury.
To be clear, if a player is significantly below his normal velocity, it's not always doom and gloom. Pitchers have to ramp up across multiple weeks and months into the season. Velocities generally rise across the board as pitchers' arms loosen up.
So, don't worry too much if a pitcher is slightly below his typical velocity bands. If he's way below, though, it might be a red flag.
Conversely, a player throwing harder than usual can be pretty exciting. Players can often make velocity jumps in the offseason by tinkering with their mechanics. Charlie Morton is a good example. After nine below-average seasons, he morphed into an All-Star in one offseason by changing his arm angle and adding a few mph to his fastball.
Take note of any early velocity gains.
Player Injuries
Players who aren't fighting for jobs don't typically push too hard during spring training, but that doesn't stop the occasional injury.
It was during the WBC and not spring training, but Jose Altuve broke his thumb a few years ago in March. He only played 90 games that season, likely costing the Astros two wins. That almost mattered in a big way since the Astros ended up tied for the division with the Rangers (they won it on a tiebreaker).
At least a few impact players will probably get hurt this spring. Last year, the Orioles rotation sustaining multiple injuries pushed me to bet their MLB win total under, which ended up either winning or losing by a half-game, depending on when people bet it.
The margins are thin, so stay vigilant.
Where Will Final Free Agency/Trade Dominoes Fall?
With Alex Bregman and Nick Pivetta signing with the Red Sox and Padres, respectively, nearly all of the key free agents have come off the board. According to FanGraphs' free agent tracker (sorted by projected WAR), only five of the top 50 players remain unsigned:
- SP Kyle Gibson
- SP Andrew Heaney
- SP Jose Quintana
- SP Lance Lynn
- INF Jose Iglesias
None of those players project as a serious difference-maker. Still, teams need depth. At least, teams that aren't the Dodgers.
Deals may still happen. Corbin Burnes was traded last February, albeit before this time last year. Rumors this year surround Dylan Cease, who could undoubtedly move the needle wherever he winds up.
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