2025 MLB Win Totals & Picks: Projections vs. Over/Under Wins Odds

MLB spring training is underway, and nearly all the impact free agents have signed. That means MLB projections are out and available and fine-tuned to a better degree than they were a couple of weeks back. We can now compare them to MLB win totals and see which teams the computers like and dislike relative to the market and your potential MLB picks.

Remember that these numbers will move with more than a month left until the regular season. Players will get hurt, traded, and signed. But these numbers should provide a pretty accurate snapshot of expectations for 2025 MLB odds.

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Complete List Of MLB Projections & Market Wins

When examining these projections and win totals, readers must consider a few factors before placing MLB picks.

First, computers heavily regress all of the teams toward the middle. That means the projections will have a tighter spread between the best and worst teams that play out in the real world. Some teams will almost always win 100 or more games, and others will almost always win 60 or fewer.

Second, the market bakes in the possibility of future moves to some extent. For example, we can expect good teams in tight division races to add talent at the deadline, while bad teams will sell off current major league talent for future value.

The computers take the expected rosters and extrapolate them throughout the season. Again, that makes the teams at the top under-projected while those at the bottom become over-projected.

Finally, win total markets have a well-known bias toward the overs. The average delta totals more than -10 wins, and 18 of 30 teams have bearish projections. That means projections that lean toward the over are slightly more meaningful.

Without further ado, the numbers. The columns below are sortable. Market wins come from FanDuel Sportsbook, while projections come from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA).

Team	Market Wins	FG Proj. Wins	BP Proj. Wins	Average Delta
Dodgers	104.5	96.9	103.5	-4.3
Braves	93.5	93.2	93.1	-0.35
Yankees	93.5	87.3	89.3	-5.2
Mets	91.5	86.7	91.7	-2.3
Phillies	91.5	87.5	85.1	-5.2
Orioles	88.5	83.1	88.6	-2.65
Astros	86.5	84.2	87	-0.9
Red Sox	86.5	84.7	79.8	-4.25
Diamondbacks	86.5	85.9	87.3	+0.1
Cubs	86.5	84.1	91.4	+1.25
Rangers	85.5	84.9	90.5	+2.2
Padres	85.5	82.2	86.6	-1.05
Mariners	84.5	84.6	85.9	+1.25
Tigers	83.5	82.7	78.9	-2.7
Twins	83.5	84	87	+1.5
Royals	82.5	81.9	81.1	-1
Guardians	82.5	78	79.9	-3.55
Brewers	82.5	81.2	80.1	-1.85
Rays	81.5	81.2	81.9	+0.05
Giants	79.5	80.4	78.2	-0.2
Blue Jays	78.5	81.8	85	+4.9
Reds	78.5	78.2	74.5	-2.15
Pirates	76.5	77.7	74.8	-0.25
Cardinals	75.5	78.5	77.7	+2.6
Angels	72.5	75	74.5	+2.25
Athletics	71.5	76.1	70.7	+1.9
Nationals	70.5	72.2	67.1	-0.85
Marlins	63.5	70.2	62.2	+2.2
Rockies	59.5	63.4	54.4	-0.6
White Sox	53.5	62.2	62	+8.6

Bullish MLB Team Projections

Chicago White Sox

Computers universally think the market is too low for the White Sox. This is a prime instance of expecting regression toward the mean.

Baseball Prospectus’ replacement-level definition says that a team of such players would win around 50 games. What I’m getting at is that it’s tough to win 41 games in an MLB season. The 2003 Tigers are the only team to come close to that number since the early 1960s.

Yet the White Sox managed to do that. Then, they traded their best pitcher (by far) to Boston for high-level prospects.

The White Sox might have the worst offense in MLB and project to have the most inferior pitching.

The market is saying Chicago could have another historically lousy season. Short of a bunch of their prospects making a jump and having immediate impacts, it’s not hard to see why bettors are hesitant to include the White Sox in their MLB picks.

Toronto Blue Jays

It’s easy to see why the projections fancy the Jays. The team doesn’t have glaring holes. Most of the best hitters are young or in their prime, and the biggest problem with the 2024 team was the bullpen.

Just how bad was Toronto’s relief corps? It finished 30th in MLB with -2.5 fWAR, further from 29th place (Colorado) than 29th was from 24th.

Toronto spent accordingly, bringing in Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, and Nick Sandlin. That should help shore things up, provided Hoffman can stay upright. Two teams medically red-flagged him in the offseason.

The problem is there’s a real and scary downside with this team on two fronts.

The first and most apparent is that Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are in the final years of their contracts. If things aren’t going well, they’ll be shipped off to greener pastures to help contenders this summer. Losing two of the team’s best position players will knock several wins off the projection.

The other significant danger is the starting pitching hitting an age-related cliff. Four of the five projected starters are on the wrong side of 34. The other is Bowden Francis, who has spent most of his career in the bullpen before playing well down the stretch in last year’s rotation.

Again, if the downside scenario plays out, the team will sell off its best bats, likely resulting in a full-on collapse. I’m not rushing to bet on the Blue Jays’ over among my MLB picks.

Minnesota Twins

Last year, the Twins entered the season as firm favorites to win the AL Central. They finished in a shocking fourth place, 10 games behind Cleveland.

The computers are going back to the well, tabbing them as clear-ish favorites. Both projection systems are well above the market, even if the expected wins are close.

Regression toward the mean is another theme here, mainly with the pitching. Minnesota’s rotation finished ninth in fWAR in 2024. However, they finished 22nd in ERA. FanGraphs WAR uses FIP as its input instead of runs allowed, so the Twins staff got credit for their stout defense-independent numbers.

The computers expect more good things from this staff, and it’s pretty clear why. The unit is talented and deep. A quality bullpen also backs it.

However, the market may harbor concerns about the offense. When your three best players are Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis, it’s again clear why. The Twins can’t count on fully healthy campaigns from any of those guys.

If the Twins stay healthy, expect them to win the division. That’s probably the bet for anyone who likes their chances in 2025.

Related: Why I’m Betting On The Braves’ Win Total

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Bearish MLB Team Projections

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland is an intense regression candidate the other way. No team overperformed its underlying sequencing more than the Guardians. They won 11 more games than their batting and pitching results dictated, indicating a ton of good fortune. The next luckiest team (Rangers) was +6.

A strong bullpen can help a team overperform these spots, and Cleveland still has that. However, bullpen performance isn’t super sticky, so we can’t be sure it’ll be elite again.

Much more concerning is the fact that Cleveland had an exactly league-average offense (100 wRC+), and instead of adding to it, they traded away one of their best bats in Josh Naylor. The deal brought back zero immediate contributors, as the team grabbed a high draft pick and some pitching depth instead.

Ace Shane Bieber and relief standout Trevor Stephan are unlikely to contribute much, if at all, after blowing out their elbows. The starting pitching is still decent, but nothing special.

Overall, Cleveland looks like a thoroughly average ball club at best, and the projections reflect that.

Boston Red Sox

I’ll take one of whatever Baseball Prospectus is sipping on when it spits out this projection, please. I would be shocked if Boston comes in under .500 this year.

The bullpen should be solid if Liam Hendriks returns to form after elbow surgery. Garrett Whitlock is transitioning back to that role and should be an elite long man.

He’s heading back there because Boston has accumulated enviable pitching depth. Multiple decent arms are penciled in as minor-league depth despite running a six-man rotation. The worst pitchers in said rotation should be around average. If he continues staying healthy, Garrett Crochet is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The key final piece was adding Alex Bregman. The top half of the lineup looks very strong, and the outfield defense looks outstanding again.

Boston is locked, loaded, and ready to compete in baseball’s toughest division. We’ll see if it has what it takes to topple the Yankees and Orioles. The projections say no, but I’m interested.

Philadelphia Phillies

Speaking of toppling, the Phillies finally did that to their nemeses, the Braves, ending Atlanta’s six-year run atop the NL East. Can they do so again?

The projections are pretty skeptical, though the market likes them a bit more as far as that goes.

Starting pitching has carried a lot of water here, and it should do so again in 2025. When Jesus Luzardo is penciled in as SP5, you know you’re looking at an outstanding unit.

The Phillies’ biggest kryptonite is the general age of the roster. Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto should all be firmly into their decline years.

None is concerningly old aside from perhaps Realmuto in their catcher years (age-34 season). But it isn’t easy to find upside when all of your main contributors project to be worse than they were the prior year. Aside from Luzardo, the Phillies didn’t make significant additions. They plugged holes left by their free agents, mainly in the pen.

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