Mo’s MLB Picks: Best Bets & Predictions For Every Major Market, Including Red Sox Odds

The Cubs and Dodgers may have officially opened the season in Japan, but opening day proper is finally here. Twenty-eight teams will be in action on Thursday, weather permitting, and the 2,000-plus game marathon will begin. On that note, there’s no better time than now to gather up a list of picks and predictions for the coming MLB season.

Below, I’ll cover every futures bet I’ve made in MLB odds. Additionally, I’ll provide picks and best values for every major MLB futures market, even the ones where I didn’t pull the trigger on anything.

If you just want the wagers, scroll down to “Mo’s MLB picks” to get a quick summary. For the best odds on every market, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Mo’s MLB Picks: 2025 Futures

Full write-ups are available for each of the linked MLB picks.

• Braves win total Under 93.5 (+100)
• Red Sox win AL East (+440)
• Kumar Rocker AL Rookie of the Year (+2000)
• Arizona Diamondbacks make playoffs (-118)
• Royals win total Under 83.5 (-110)
• Twins win AL Central (+210)
• Corbin Carroll NL MVP (+4000)
• Giants more wins than Guardians (+125)
• White Sox more wins than Rockies (+225)

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MLB Picks FOr Every Major Future And Awards

Here’s a complete list of my MLB picks across divisions, leagues, and major awards. I’ll briefly analyze each one, and my value leans in spots where I didn’t make a wager.

AL East

See my linked Red Sox write-up above. I love the additions of Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman. Boston has huge starting pitching depth, though it will be tested to start the season as three starters are opening on the IL with minor injuries.

My only real concerns here are Crochet’s health after he made a huge innings jump last year and a very old bullpen at the top. Still, Boston likely has enough depth in its starters that they can convert an arm or two to the pen and shore up any weakness there.

I got a tremendous price here at +440 before the avalanche of injuries felled the Yanks. However, I still think New York is overvalued, and Boston is playable at +300.

Mo’s Pick: Red Sox
Best Value: Red Sox

AL Central

One of the more wide-open divisions, I put a small wager on the Twins here. I think they’re easily the most talented team, and they certainly have the most bottomless well of pitching from which to draw. The bullpen should be elite, so leads should be safe in the Twin Cities.

As usual, injuries are the main concern with this team. You can’t trust Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, or Carlos Correa to stay healthy. If they somehow do, Minnesota should cruise, but that’s quite unlikely.

The Tigers have a nice pitching staff, but I’m not bullish on their offense. Cleveland is probably the No. 1 regression candidate in baseball.

Mo’s Pick: Twins
Best Value: Twins

AL West

Many projections are in on Texas, and I can see why. They retooled their bullpen, have a talented pitching staff, and the offense almost has to bounce back after last year’s faceplant.

The market favors the Astros, but it’s close. I’m a bit concerned about the offense. Framber Valdez’s skills start slipping atop the rotation, and the rest of the arms don’t inspire much confidence.

Seattle might be the most interesting team here, but overall, I thought this division was priced correctly. I was a little bearish on Houston, but I didn’t hate them enough to pull the trigger under their win total.

Mo’s Pick: Mariners
Best Value: Mariners

NL East

There are way more question marks about the Braves than the market seems to. Every publicly available projection system appears to love the Braves, but I have significant questions about this rotation. The projections are much more optimistic than I am about Chris Sale (playing time) and Reynaldo Lopez (effectiveness).

Still, they’ve definitely got the most upside, depending on how Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. perform when they return from injury.

The Mets and Phillies are great, but they have their questions. New York is opening the season with a rash of injuries, and I’m starting to get concerned about Philly’s roster’s collective age.

Washington is coming, but they should still be at least a year or two away.

Mo’s Pick: Braves
Best Value: Mets

NL Central

Much like Boston, the Cubs finally stopped pretending like they were poor. Voila, they have the consensus best team in the division and the shortest odds.

Chicago’s moves have given them a high floor. Aside from the catcher, this is a pretty good roster without any major weak points, which isn’t an easy position to improve.

Milwaukee looks likely to take a small step back, but they have potential if Jackson Chourio ascends to superstardom.

However, Cincinnati looks like the value play here, with a rogue +650 available at DraftKings. I don’t like this bullpen, but enough is starting pitching here that I could see them toppling the Cubs.

Mo’s Pick: Cubs
Best Value: Reds

NL West

The Dodgers enter the season as the juggernauts. They won the World Series and retain the best roster in MLB by far. They only added to their riches in the offseason, bringing in SPs Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki and ace relievers Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. Good luck beating these guys.

Still, I do think the Diamondbacks have a shot. I like Arizona’s offseason moves. For me, they’re like the Boston of the NL, a team with outstanding top-end talent and a lot of pitching depth.

Mo’s Pick: Dodgers
Best Value: Diamondbacks

AL Playoffs/Pennant

Mo’s Pick: Red Sox
Best Value: Red Sox

NL Playoffs/Pennant

Mo’s Pick: Dodgers
Best Value: Diamondbacks

World Series

Mo’s Pick: Dodgers
Best Value: Diamondbacks

AL MVP

Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. loom large here. Both players posted ridiculous 10+ WAR seasons in 2024, with Witt coming out of nowhere to jump to superstardom.

I’m a little worried their teams will be out of contention, though, particularly in Witt’s case. That doesn’t necessarily disqualify them, but I’m interested in a few others at longer odds.

Riley Greene is a true longshot, but if he powers the Tigers to a division crown, he fits the traditional mold as a heavy-hitting bat.

Julio Rodriguez is also worth monitoring. He has multiple seasons of 5.8 WAR before dipping last year. That’s exactly the number Witt put up before he rocketed up to 10.4 WAR last year.

Mo’s Pick: Gunnar Henderson
Best Value: Riley Greene

NL MVP

Shohei Ohtani returns, but how will his 2025 look? He seems likely to take a step back after a career season at the plate in 2024. There are already rumblings he’ll run less often, hurting his counting stats, and he might get more days off from swinging a bat as he attempts to return to pitching. That, in turn, also makes him more likely to sustain an injury since pitching is rough on the human body.

I’m rolling with my Diamondbacks narrative here and picking Corbin Carroll to bounce back after a sophomore slump last year. He recovered down the stretch and already has a 5.4 WAR season to his credit.

Mo’s Pick: Juan Soto
Best Value: Corbin Carroll

AL Cy Young

Hard-throwing lefties dominate the top of the board. Cole Ragans, Garrett Crochet, and incumbent winner Tarik Skubal are all monsters, though I’ve already mentioned I’m worried about Crochet’s volume and Ragans’ team context.

I didn’t see much interested me here, so I’ll default to Skubal, a guy I’ve been in on since his full-season debut in 2021.

Lower down the board, I’ve always been higher than the market on Max Fried, who must now lead the Yankees rotation in lieu of Gerrit Cole. I could also see Yusei Kikuchi continuing to break out after he finally put it together for the Astros down the stretch. The key will be keeping those gains in his new environment in L.A.

Mo’s Pick: Tarik Skubal
Best Value: Max Fried

NL Cy Young

Paul Skenes will be tough to beat in this market for years. The young fireballer was excellent last year and consistently found himself on my betting cards. He had 4.3 WAR in less than an entire season.

Chris Sale dominated, and he remains one of the best pitchers on a rate basis. Putting up back-to-back high-volume years is tough to count on now, though.

Elsewhere, Cristopher Sanchez is turning heads this spring by throwing 97. He has clowned guys thus far, though it’s never certain if that means anything until the real games begin. Still, he’s been good enough in the past, and if he can hold those gains, I don’t think a punt on him is crazy.

Mo’s Pick: Paul Skenes
Best Value: Cristopher Sanchez

AL Rookie of the Year

A couple of late roster announcements have reshaped this race a bit.

Kristian Campbell made the Red Sox. The bat-first infielder doesn’t project well defensively, which could hurt his WAR total, but he’s a top-10 prospect for FanGraphs and Keith Law. He has a great shot at winning the award, and his odds have shortened.

Speaking of hot-swinging infielders, Cam Smith made the Astros and will reportedly start in right field. He crushed minor-league pitching across three levels last year, though he topped out at Double-A. A blazing-hot spring training convinced the Astros he was ready, and he rocketed up boards.

Still, I’m sticking with my value play in Kumar Rocker. He solidified himself in the Texas rotation thanks to injuries, and I think he’ll be tough to unseat.

Mo’s Pick: Kristian Campbell
Best Value: Kumar Rocker

NL Rookie of the Year

Roki Sasaki dominates this market. He had a mixed debut, giving up one run but struggling mightily with his command. He walked five. I think the Dodgers will treat him with kid gloves, and he’s likely overpriced here.

Matt Shaw holds the most intrigue for me among the favorites. He crushed the high minors last year (148 wRC+ in Double-A, 142 wRC+ in Triple-A) and opened the season with a starting job for the Cubs.

Atlanta C Drake Baldwin is another interesting name. A top talent, he gets an early opportunity thanks to Sean Murphy’s injury.

Cincinnati’s Rhett Lowder didn’t have a scintillating debut, as he struggled to miss bats (8.6% swinging strikes). However, he has the pedigree as a former No. 7 overall pick. If he returns from injury in good shape, I think he’s got a shot to find himself in the mix.

Mo’s Pick: Matt Shaw
Best Value: Rhett Lowder

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