The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Wednesday, June 15
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Baltimore Orioles At Toronto Blue Jays
Taking the Orioles has not exactly been kind to me this season, but I’m sighing and clicking on them once again getting a huge number against the surging Blue Jays. After starting the season out wonderfully, Bruce Zimmermann has regressed in a hurry. However, he still has a 4.29 SIERA, so I’m not giving up all hope just yet.
What really gives me hope is the boom/bust nature of Jose Berrios’ season. He has four starts with a game score of 35 or so, while he also has four with a game score of 67 or better. His peripherals look rough this year with a dip in swinging strikes (now well below average) and a barrel rate more than twice the league average. If he has one of his blow-up starts, the Os do have the power to pounce. I expect the Orioles parlayed with the over has a decent expectation since they’ll need bad Berrios to give up some dingers.
Current best price: Orioles
San Diego Padres At Chicago Cubs
Another ultra-windy day at Wrigley, which always creates a weird dynamic and a potentially weird game. This time, two wild cards on the mound add to the intrigue as Ryan Weathers faces the ascendant Caleb Kilian. Weathers has pretty massive splits in a couple of senses, pitching poorly against righties and also as a starter. Well, he’s starting and the Cubs should throw a nearly all right-handed lineup at him. He was rushed to the majors last year and wasn’t ready, and that looks to still be the case considering he has a monster 7.29 ERA and 6.88 FIP even in Triple A so far. Most ominously, he has induced just 35% grounders.
Kilian looks like a more impressive prospect. The computers like him for a low 4s ERA, and perhaps more importantly, he looks better suited for this game. The Pads stink against right-handed pitching, and Kilian excels at getting grounders, posting around 58% worm-burners in Triple A. That could help him minimize damage on a day that should see a ton of scoring.
Current best price: Cubs
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
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