MLB Picks: Will Merrill Catch Skenes In NL Rookie Of The Year Odds?

A week ago, Pirates phenom Paul Skenes was considered a shoo-in for the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year award. Nevertheless, the market has shifted drastically, with Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill making a hefty push. Let’s assess whether Merrill’s NL ROY odds are worth adding to your MLB picks portfolio.

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MLB Picks: NL Rookie of the Year odds

Merrill & Skenes’ Trajectories

When the season began, the 21-year-old Merrill showcased the fourth-best odds (+800) to win the NL ROY award at BetMGM Sportsbook.

In the market, he trailed the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Brewers’ Jackson Chourio, and the Giants’ Jung Hoo Lee. Skenes was in the minors then, with his price tag in the +2500 range. He made his major league debut on May 11 and eventually earned the starting nod for the NL in the MLB All-Star Game, becoming the fifth rookie to accomplish this feat.

At the break, Skenes was -1150 to take home NL ROY, while Merrill was +550. As noted, the Pirates right-hander rose to -5000 on Aug. 7, boasting a 1.99 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and 32.6% strikeout rate. Skenes owned a top-five ranking in each of those categories.

However, he’s looked pedestrian in his last two starts, surrendering six earned runs in 11.1 innings. He’s also reached 119 innings between Triple-A and the majors. With the Pirates having all but fallen out of playoff contention, Skenes will likely be shut down in early September.

Skenes’ ROY odds have slimmed down to as low as Paul Skenes -365 on Consensus at FanDuel Sportsbook. Merrill can be had at there. His best odds are Jackson Merrill +230 on Consensus at BetMGM.

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Evaluating Merrill’s Surge

Already an All-Star centerfielder, Merrill has padded his numbers in his last six games, tallying four home runs and eight RBI. Overall, he’s slashing .289/.321/.479 with 17 HR and 64 RBI. He’s helped the Padres assert themselves in the NL wild-card race and gain ground on the Dodgers in the NL West standings, sitting 3 1/2 games back as of Tuesday.

Bettors who jumped on the Padres bandwagon in mid-May must feel optimistic about their +6000 World Series tickets. San Diego’s odds are currently San Diego Padres +3500 on DraftKings in this market, with Merrill’s two-way prowess greatly contributing.

Merrill’s fWAR (3.4) is well ahead of Skenes’ (2.6), and he will only continue to pad the lead. Remember that 18 of the last 24 MLB ROY winners (75%) finished atop the rookie WAR leaderboard in their respective league.

To boot, just four of those 24 winners were pitchers. Brewers closer Devin Williams was the last to do so in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.

Although Skenes has made numerous headlines, Merrill is well-positioned to continue to put heat on Skenes.