2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 30

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 30, 2022
MLB Picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Thursday, June 30

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

New York Yankees At Houston Astros

Yesterday in New York — against the other NY team — Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena collided in short left field. It didn’t look like the worst collision ever, but Alvarez reportedly wound up carted off, and Pena exited the game as well.

I don’t expect either one to play today regardless of how concussion testing turns out. That turns what I thought was a pretty fair line into a small edge on the Yankees. I got -117 and still saw a -121 hanging around this morning, which I think is good enough to bet. Once you get past -125 it starts getting iffy, but JJ Matijevic (47% K rate so far) and Aledmys Diaz (just a useful backup) represent big steps down. Alvarez has been the best hitter in baseball this season and Pena has quietly accumulated 2.4 WAR through solid hitting and great defense. I also like the matchup a bit for the Yanks offense as they are fourth in hitting against cutters, Luis Garcia’s best pitch and most used secondary.

Current best price: Yankees

Cincinnati Reds At Chicago Cubs

Here we have another Wrigley outfield wind special, and that’s my main angle behind taking the Reds and the over. The wind howling out makes for a premium on grounders and that’s exactly what Graham Ashcraft brings in bunches with a stellar 57.5% rate of worm burners. The Cubs love to pound the ball into the turf, sporting the second-highest grounder rate in baseball. Ashcraft sits in the rarified air of the negative launch angle club alongside the likes of Framber Valdez, so he figures to do better than most in this matchup.

On the other side, one-time grounder master Kyle Hendricks has become heavily tilted to fly balls in recent years. A 16-degree launch angle looks quite scary in this scenario, and it’s not like Hendricks excels at getting weak pop-ups as he’s allowing more than 1.5 HR/9 each of the past two seasons.

Current best price: Reds

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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