The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Thursday, July 21
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Detroit Tigers At Oakland A’s
This is a meeting of two bad offenses but one hits lefties a bit better, and that’s the Tigers. While Oakland sports an 88 wRC+ against southpaws, the pitiful Tigers offense has actually managed a 101 wRC+, meaning they are slightly above the league average.
Furthermore, Tarik Skubal is a very good pitcher. Zach Logue is mostly unknown but he looks like a pretty bad pitcher, most likely. His Triple A numbers with Toronto were quite good last year, which gave me some hope for him. They’ve been decidedly worse this year (7.57 FIP in 55.2 IP) and he’s been atrocious in the big leagues. Name the stat — exit velocity, an ERA estimator, swings and misses, first strikes, anything — and he’s been awful in his first 29 innings. He looks replacement-level, and if that’s the case, I think -155 is still a bit light on the Tigers, although I wouldn’t bet it much past that number. (Editor’s note: large A’s steam hit right after this was posted.)
Current best price: Tigers
San Francisco Giants At LA Dodgers
Colleague Eli Hershkovich alerted me to this one early, and he hopped aboard at a better number than I saw even before midnight EDT last night. I still thought +131 was very good for a play, though, so I grabbed some of that, and I’m glad I did since the Giants got absolutely steamed overnight. I don’t think this number is playable anymore, so if you want action here, I’d keep an eye out for any buy back on the Dodgers.
As for the matchup itself, I’m always looking to bet good lefties against the Dodgers at a decent price. That’s what I got here, and Carlos Rodon should be fresh coming out of the break. For a guy who has struggled at times to maintain his velocity, that could be big. Mitch White has done solid work for the Dodgers, but I still have him projected a bit below average, in line with his 4.11 SIERA and 4.22 xERA. The Giants bats have come alive before the break with 8+ runs in four of their last eight games. Just hope the bullpen and defense don’t sink them tonight.
Current best price: Giants
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
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