2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For July 21

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on July 21, 2022 - Last Updated on July 22, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Thursday, July 21

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Detroit Tigers At Oakland A’s

This is a meeting of two bad offenses but one hits lefties a bit better, and that’s the Tigers. While Oakland sports an 88 wRC+ against southpaws, the pitiful Tigers offense has actually managed a 101 wRC+, meaning they are slightly above the league average.

Furthermore, Tarik Skubal is a very good pitcher. Zach Logue is mostly unknown but he looks like a pretty bad pitcher, most likely. His Triple A numbers with Toronto were quite good last year, which gave me some hope for him. They’ve been decidedly worse this year (7.57 FIP in 55.2 IP) and he’s been atrocious in the big leagues. Name the stat — exit velocity, an ERA estimator, swings and misses, first strikes, anything — and he’s been awful in his first 29 innings. He looks replacement-level, and if that’s the case, I think -155 is still a bit light on the Tigers, although I wouldn’t bet it much past that number. (Editor’s note: large A’s steam hit right after this was posted.)

Current best price: Tigers

San Francisco Giants At LA Dodgers

Colleague Eli Hershkovich alerted me to this one early, and he hopped aboard at a better number than I saw even before midnight EDT last night. I still thought +131 was very good for a play, though, so I grabbed some of that, and I’m glad I did since the Giants got absolutely steamed overnight. I don’t think this number is playable anymore, so if you want action here, I’d keep an eye out for any buy back on the Dodgers.

As for the matchup itself, I’m always looking to bet good lefties against the Dodgers at a decent price. That’s what I got here, and Carlos Rodon should be fresh coming out of the break. For a guy who has struggled at times to maintain his velocity, that could be big. Mitch White has done solid work for the Dodgers, but I still have him projected a bit below average, in line with his 4.11 SIERA and 4.22 xERA. The Giants bats have come alive before the break with 8+ runs in four of their last eight games. Just hope the bullpen and defense don’t sink them tonight.

Current best price: Giants

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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