2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For Aug. 3

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on August 3, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Wednesday, Aug. 3

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Kansas City Royals At Chicago White Sox

The season Brady Singer has put together is one of the few bright spots for the Royals this season. I’ve been pounding the table that the market has been undervaluing him all year, and all he did last time out was fire seven shutout innings with 11 Ks at New York. Of course, the rest of his team let him down in a painful 1-0 loss. He has every ERA estimator at career-best levels, with his 3.25 SIERA especially showcasing how good he’s been and that he could be a future No. 2 on a contender.

On the other hand, it’s been a disappointing year for Lance Lynn between injuries and ineffectiveness. Even though his SIERA is solid at 3.58, I have major concerns when I see a velocity dip like this. He’s working at 92.7 this year, about 2 mph below where he’s been the past few. The lineup also looks less than full strength with Luis Robert confirmed out again just before publication.

Current best price: Royals

New York Mets At Washington Nationals

The Mets blew it for those hoping to cash in Jacob deGrom’s return, falling as huge favorites to the Nationals. I’ll take what is hopefully a buy slightly low spot, although that may no longer be the case after some morning steam has pushed the Mets out of the playable range for me.

After initially looking fine, Anibal Sanchez’s velocity dipped to 89.9 last start. Given his age (38) and velocity history, I’m leaning toward the early game being the outlier. If this is just where he’s sitting, throwing sub-90 mph heat from the right side, he’s a prime fade target. He has tried to adjust by pitching backwards, firing his changeup more than 30% of the time the past two games. Problem there is the Mets have hit changeups better than any other team in baseball this season. And this Nationals lineup leaves…a lot to be desired after trading away Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

Current best price: Mets

Colorado Rockies At San Diego Padres

Speaking of Soto, his new team figures to slot he and Bell into the lineup today and create an offensive monster the likes of which only perhaps the Dodgers and Yankees can match. While opposing pitcher Chad Kuhl’s numbers look pretty similar to previous seasons, playing in Coors is masking that he’s actually been a bit better in 2022. One plus: he relies pretty heavily on a sinker, throwing it more than 40% of the time, and the Padres have hit sinkers worse than all but one other team. For this price, all Kuhl must do is keep them in the game, and he can do that.

It’s just hard to buy into the idea that the Padres should be north of -300 when putting Blake Snell on the mound. He has not been a good pitcher in multiple seasons now. The roughly 4 SIERA he has put up each of the past two years looks like a decent barometer for his talent level. He has cleaned up the contact quality some by cutting his barrel rate but more than 5 BB/9 makes him very vulnerable, particularly when he shows such a fly ball tendency. I just can’t get a pitcher like that to this big of a favorite here.

Current best price: Rockies

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah