2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For July 28

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on July 28, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Thursday, July 28

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Kansas City Royals At New York Yankees

Isn’t there only so big of an underdog a team can be when they have a superior pitcher on the mound? That’s kind of how I feel about the Royals here, as I do believe Brady Singer is better than Jameson Taillon. If not, they are at least about equal. Singer has just been much better at dodging MLB bats, with a 30.7% called strike+whiff rate that’s just a tier below the elites, while Taillon sits at 25.6%, below the average. SIERA likes Singer’s work more as well. He has a rather impressive 3.37 with Taillon sitting at 3.89.

My concerns here revolve around some injured Royals. If Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinny Pasquantino sit, this play becomes quite a bit less attractive. I keep expecting Witt to return to the lineup since the team hasn’t put him on IL but he keeps sitting. Pasquantino’s availability is a mystery after a minor injury on Wednesday.

Perhaps that’s why the market has come in on the Yankees. Influential bettors have moved the line that way early so you can do better than I did if you have any belief in Singer, who has been a money printing machine this season.

Current best price: Royals

Chicago Cubs At San Francisco Giants

Betting the Giants has been a very easy way part with one’s money lately. They haven’t gotten so much as a single win since before the All-Star break. I’m prepared for more pain, however, as I am a big believer in Alex Wood. He has pitched very well so far with a 3.35 SIERA that belies his 4.21 ERA. Unfortunately, like with all Giants pitchers, he has struggled due to playing in front of an exceptionally poor defense. Luckily, the other team isn’t much better for once, as the Cubs have had one of the worst defenses also, and Justin Steele isn’t on Wood’s level.

The Giants also hit lefties quite well, ranking seventh in MLB with a 114 wRC+. I believe in the number because they have a number of platoon bats that are strong from the right side. I expect them to get to Steele, and I’m ready to be let down by the Giants defense again.

Current best price: Giants

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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