2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 28

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 28, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Tuesday, June 28

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Pittsburgh Pirates At Washington Nationals

Two lefties take the hill here, and a year or two ago, it would have made perfect sense to me that Washington would be favored. Given the season Jose Quintana is putting together, though, I have to rate him a bit higher than Patrick Corbin. He’s just doing basically everything better. He misses more bats (11.9% swingings strikes to 9.3%), gets way weaker contact (86.6 mph exit velocity to 90.8) and keeps the ball in the park more often (0.9 HR/9 to 1.56). I think he’s recaptured at least some of his old form. And while the stats would say Washington has a better offense, and they likely do, I think Pittsburgh is a little closer than the numbers with talented call-ups Oneil Cruz and Diego Castillo in the lineup.

Current best price: Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers At Tampa Bay Rays

Brandon Woodruff comes off the IL today and I’m hoping he can give the Brewers 6 IP after going 5 in his last rehab start in the minors. Even if he can’t, I like that the Brewers bullpen should enter well-rested following a blowout win and then a day off. I don’t trust Shane Baz after some erratic pitching in some recent start. And I think the Brewers match up fairly well given their numerous lefties (including the returning Kolten Wong) and Baz’s tendency to rely on his slider. The Brew Crew chases at one of the lowest rates in the majors and has hit sliders better than all but six other teams.

Current best price: Brewers

LA Dodgers At Colorado Rockies

I’m kicking myself for not trusting my numbers and betting the Rockies yesterday, but I’ll try to make up for it today by doing so. Clayton Kershaw is still performing at an elite level, but in small doses. He seems capped around 80 pitches as the team tries to save his bullets for the postseason following last year’s disastrous postseason pitching situation. That means a bunch of Dodgers middle relief innings in Coors, and Kershaw has been no great shakes there either with a 4.57 ERA in 24 starts. I like Kyle Freeland more than the projections do, and the Dodgers have barely been above average versus lefties (105 wRC+).

Current best price: Rockies

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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