The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Tuesday, June 28
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Pittsburgh Pirates At Washington Nationals
Two lefties take the hill here, and a year or two ago, it would have made perfect sense to me that Washington would be favored. Given the season Jose Quintana is putting together, though, I have to rate him a bit higher than Patrick Corbin. He’s just doing basically everything better. He misses more bats (11.9% swingings strikes to 9.3%), gets way weaker contact (86.6 mph exit velocity to 90.8) and keeps the ball in the park more often (0.9 HR/9 to 1.56). I think he’s recaptured at least some of his old form. And while the stats would say Washington has a better offense, and they likely do, I think Pittsburgh is a little closer than the numbers with talented call-ups Oneil Cruz and Diego Castillo in the lineup.
Current best price: Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers At Tampa Bay Rays
Brandon Woodruff comes off the IL today and I’m hoping he can give the Brewers 6 IP after going 5 in his last rehab start in the minors. Even if he can’t, I like that the Brewers bullpen should enter well-rested following a blowout win and then a day off. I don’t trust Shane Baz after some erratic pitching in some recent start. And I think the Brewers match up fairly well given their numerous lefties (including the returning Kolten Wong) and Baz’s tendency to rely on his slider. The Brew Crew chases at one of the lowest rates in the majors and has hit sliders better than all but six other teams.
Current best price: Brewers
LA Dodgers At Colorado Rockies
I’m kicking myself for not trusting my numbers and betting the Rockies yesterday, but I’ll try to make up for it today by doing so. Clayton Kershaw is still performing at an elite level, but in small doses. He seems capped around 80 pitches as the team tries to save his bullets for the postseason following last year’s disastrous postseason pitching situation. That means a bunch of Dodgers middle relief innings in Coors, and Kershaw has been no great shakes there either with a 4.57 ERA in 24 starts. I like Kyle Freeland more than the projections do, and the Dodgers have barely been above average versus lefties (105 wRC+).
Current best price: Rockies
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
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