The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Thursday, July 7
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Colorado Rockies At Arizona Diamondbacks
You know the Rockies stink but one thing you may not know is they actually hit left-handed pitching quite well. They rank seventh in MLB with a 113 wRC+ and I don’t think it’s a bunch of good luck as they do have a lineup that rates to hit southpaws decently with the likes of CJ Cron, Randal Grichuk and Kris Bryant. Arizona, not so much with an 85 wRC+ that ranks 27th in baseball.
So, we know the Rockies have an edge at the plate, but I think they have an edge on the mound as well. I have been a Dallas Keuchel fan since he was winning me bets back in 2013 at huge odds for a pathetic Astros team, but he looks like he has found the end of the line. An 88 mph heater just isn’t cutting it and the walks have reached the breaking point, nearly outpacing his strikeouts as he tries to nibble since his stuff can’t play in the zone. Yes, Austin Gomber is bad as well, but he at least has a 4.45 SIERA, so he hasn’t reached the depths that Keuchel has plumbed. I like the Rockies up to -120.
Current best price: Rockies
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
MLB Sportsbook Promos
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