2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For July 25

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on July 25, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Monday, July 25

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Miami Marlins At Cincinnati Reds

It’s been a rocky debut season for the highly touted Nick Lodolo, at least in terms of outcomes as he sports a 5.81 ERA. However, almost all his peripherals are significantly better than that. He has a 3.41 SIERA and a 3.7 xFIP, and his called strike+whiff rate is above average. He has struggled with walks and BABIP issues, but the walks seems flukey since he has a very solid zone% and first strike rate, plus a decent minor league track record. The Marlins offense should provide very easy prey. They have reached a comical level of injury ruin, missing Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler, Brian Anderson and potentially Garrett Cooper. And this from a group that didn’t lefties well at all in their best health. I don’t think the 69 wRC+ the group has posted in July is a small sample fluke.

This one’s good to -135, so still playable as of early afternoon.

Current best price: Reds

San Diego Padres At Detroit Tigers

Sean Manaea has not been at his best this year, but he’s still significantly above Drew Hutchison. I continue to be amazed someone is letting that guy start MLB games, but perhaps the team is fooled by his 4.46 ERA. Hutchison has earned well worse outcomes with a mere 25 Ks and 19 BBs in 40 IP. The 5.25 SIERA tells you plenty and the 90.2 exit velocity allowed shows he hasn’t limited hard contact at all. The other shoe will drop eventually.

I also like that Javier Baez (career 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs) seems likely to sit out after sustaining an injury on Sunday, and the Tigers may be short-handed in the pen. Alex Lange, Michael Fulmer and Tyler Alexander, all of whom have done good work for the team, could potentially find themselves out of the mix today due to recent usage.

Current best price: Padres

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah
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