The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Monday, June 13
For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.
Baltimore Orioles At Toronto Blue Jays
There aren’t too many scarier offenses to fade than that of the Blue Jays lately. They have surged to sixth in wRC+ and have the best offense in the majors (134 wRC+) over the past month.
That being said, I do see some potential in Orioles starter Kyle Bradish. He’s been massively unlucky so far with a doozy of a 6.45 ERA that belies his league average 3.96 SIERA. A .347 BABIP and a comical 27% HR/FB rate drives the disappointment. I expect better things going forward and the Orioles are getting a massive number here. Yes, Alek Manoah is very good, but Bradish might potentially be solid as well, so getting more than +230 here seems too high. That being said, the market appears to have inched slightly the other way.
Current best price: Orioles
Cincinnati Reds At Arizona Diamondbacks
I like Merrill Kelly quite a bit and I am not impressed by Mike Minor at all. So, why am I betting the Reds here?
It just comes down to believing more in their offense than that of the Diamondbacks. Since Joey Votto got healthy and the Reds stopped playing like the worst team in MLB history, the Reds actually have a pretty good offense. With names like Votto and Tommy Pham and the hot Brandon Drury, there’s no reason this group can’t be reasonable going forward. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, sit 29th in wRC+ against lefties at 81. That’s not good, folks. Minor has allowed a ton of dingers since he came off the IL but if he can pitch to his 4.48 SIERA and keep getting swinging strikes (11.7% so far) I like the Reds’ chances here and I got in at a good number.
Current best price: Reds
Minnesota Twins At Seattle Mariners
This is another no-value special as the market slammed the Twins overnight and the steam has continued through morning — join the Discord (see above) to make sure you have a chance to get the juicy overnight prices.
In any case, we have two similarly projected pitchers here, but one offense I believe in much more. The Twins, so long as they don’t glue Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to the bench, look quite a bit better to me even if they have only played slightly better. Chris Archer has a rather intriguing matchup against a Seattle offense that’s bad (23rd in pitch value) against his most-used pitch, his strong slider. But, they hammer fastballs, and Archer’s fastball is not good, so he needs to tread cautiously with it and lean into his slidepiece even more.
Current best price: Twins
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
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