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MLB Picks For Tuesday, June 14
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Atlanta Braves At Washington Nationals
I don’t find myself on too many big favorites but I did surprise myself and take the Braves last night. The Nationals are calling up an emergency starter in Jackson Tetreault after putting Stephen Strasburg back on the IL on short notice. A 26-year-old non-prospect, Tetreault has a 5.25 FIP in 58 Triple A innings this year. He did not exactly sparkle last year at Double A either with a 4.98 FIP in 55 innings. He doesn’t look like an MLB-caliber arm, with the projections expecting a mid-5s ERA.
Up against Max Fried, who has been dominant this year with a 3.16 SIERA and his usual strong contact management, that leaves the Nationals in a rough spot. The Braves offense has also been smoking hot, and they should roll here. I like them at anything better than -270, so this still looks playable even at as the line has moved toward Atlanta.
Current best price: Braves
Cincinnati Reds At Arizona Diamondbacks
The Reds came through for me yesterday and I’m going right back to them again here. Tyler Mahle has been pretty much his normal self despite a 5.07 ERA. He has his normal swinging strike rate, barrel rate, BABIP, etc. He’s actually throwing what should be a better pitch mix for him since he swapped out a bunch of sliders for splitters, which has been a better pitch for him in his career. If the market is dinging him at all then I’m interested in a buy against Zach Davies, who is basically thriving on a big exit velocity dip. He hasn’t shown a consistent ability to induce that weak of contact in the past, so I’m guessing this is a fluke. The return of Jonathan India to the Reds lineup should offset the loss of Tyler Stephenson, too.
Current best price: Reds
Minnesota Twins At Seattle Mariners
My guy Joe Ryan is back from his COVID-induced absence, and assuming he has no ill effects lingering, I’m backing him per usual against the continually overrated Mariners. The projections like Logan Gilbert more but I’m just not seeing it. Not with Gilbert’s subpar 25.6% called strike+whiff rate and much harder contact allowed (career 90.4 mph versus Ryan’s 87 mph). Both teams have thrived hunting fastballs but both of these pitchers have thrived throwing their fastball a ton, so this may come down to who can get their heater by the other lineup. I have more confidence in Ryan’s unique offering (70 grade as a prospect) and the Twins’ overall talent level in their lineup, so I like them at anything plus.
Current best price: Twins
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
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