The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Wednesday, Aug. 24
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Texas Rangers At Colorado Rockies
It took awhile, but I think the market finally caught up to what Martin Perez has been doing. As a result, I haven’t bet him in awhile, but I think there might finally be a bit of value here. Although the Rockies hit lefties better, they’re still missing noted lefty crusher Kris Bryant, which should drag that down some. Additionally, Perez has a couple of favorable things lining up for him. For one, the Rockies hit more grounders than anyone, which fits perfectly with Perez’s 51.2 GB%. I also like that he relies mostly on a sinker/change combo. Road pitchers who rely more on breaking stuff should tend to struggle more at Coors since those pitches get most affected.
And Jose Urena is a flat out awful pitcher who has no place on an MLB staff. He has 28 walks and 30 strikeouts in 57.1 IP this year. You don’t often see the computers project an ERA above 7 but that’s where ZiPS has him. I like a play on the Rangers up to -135 in a spot I’m usually loathe to take road teams.
Current best price: Rangers
Chicago White Sox At Baltimore Orioles
Spenser Watkins keeps churning out decent outings, but I keep looking at his peripherals and seeing a 4.82 xERA and a 4.87 SIERA and I keep wondering how long he can keep this up. The projections have him around a 5.4 ERA. While I wouldn’t quite be that harsh — I believe the cutter he added this season has made a material difference to his talent level — he’s probably still about a run worse than Lucas Giolito. Granted, Giolito has struggled tremendously this season thanks to BABIP and homer issues. But even at reduced velocity around 93 mph, I’d still expect no worse than about a 4 ERA.
I can only get this price to make sense if I believe the Orioles have a notably better offense than Chicago here. But despite the White Sox’s struggles to hit right-handed pitching at times, they probably still have three better hitters than anyone on Baltimore’s roster in Luis Robert, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez (assuming he plays after taking a HBP on the elbow). I like the White Sox up to -125 for a small play.
Current best price: White Sox
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
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