2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 12

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 12, 2022 - Last Updated on June 21, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Sunday, June 12

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Baltimore Orioles At Kansas City Royals

Major League starters don’t come a whole lot worse than Dean Kremer. With a 5.87 career FIP and a 5.11 career SIERA, he may not keep pitching to his career 6.81 ERA, but I don’t expect anything particularly good to come from his right hand. Brad Keller may not be a good pitcher, but he’s certainly projecting well ahead of those numbers. My main concern here is Baltimore is quite good at lifting the ball (second-lowest GB%), which matches up well for them against Keller and his grounder lean.

I still think the Royals should be bigger favorites around -130 than where I got them south of -120. I think their offense is probably underpriced by the market since Bobby Witt Jr. and MJ Melendez have added quite a bit after being awful (Witt) and absent (Melendez) early in the season.

Current best price: Royals

Miami Marlins At Houston Astros

This one moved quite heavily against me, so not looking like a good play. I bet the Marlins and cashed in the previous two games in this series and tried to go back to the well here. I guess I’m going to just keep fading Justin Verlander until I lose all my money, but I fail to see how he can keep anything close to his 2.13 ERA going when he has a below average called strike+whiff rate. His BABIP (.216) and LOB (91.3%) also remain incredibly lucky.

Edward Cabrera has all of the arm talent (13% swinging strikes) but walks way too many guys. The Astros are bottom-10 in chase rate, but at this price, I’m willing to gamble that this will be one of Cabrera’s good days. The Marlins also bring a top-five offense to the table in terms of hitting right-handed starters.

Current best price: Marlins

Texas Rangers At Chicago White Sox

No more value in this one unfortunately as the market slammed Rangers overnight. I was stunned to see them this big of favorites against a decent right-handed pitcher when the formula has been clear: bet them versus lefties (143 wRC+) and fade them versus righties (78 wRC+). Jon Gray has been solid this season.

The projections like Michael Kopech but I’m not convinced. He walks way too many guys (4.24 BB/9) and is running a .180 BABIP and a 3% HR/FB rate. With a below average zone rate, first-strike rate and chase rate, I’m not sure I expect a ton of positive regression from him. The Rangers don’t match up amazingly as they’ve hit lefties much better and do play into Kopech’s fly ball tendency, but again, for the massive price I got, that’s OK. I wouldn’t bet this now unless a buy back comes in and you can get +135 or so.

Current best price: Rangers

New York Mets At LA Angels

This was a tough one to handicap yesterday, so much so that I skipped it entirely, but we got some clarity on key injured hitters. Mike Trout played and looked like his best self, blasting two homers, while Anthony Rendon also got back in the mix to leave the Angels close to full strength, although they still miss Taylor Ward. Pete Alonso also returned for the Mets.

Now that we know the Angels have the punch mostly back in their lineup, I’m comfortable laying a small price here against an awful pitcher in Taijuan Walker. Walker can barely miss a bat (9.5% swinging strikes) and his 3.28 ERA way outpaces his 4.96 SIERA. I have Patrick Sandoval rated quite a bit better, and the Mets have not hit lefties nearly as well this season.

Current best price: Angels

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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