2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 16

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 16, 2022 - Last Updated on June 21, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Thursday, June 16

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Texas Rangers At Detroit Tigers

The legendary Martin Perez makes his next start today, and I’m expecting another great performance. Detroit has a bottom-five wRC+ against left-handed pitching and rates particularly poorly against sinkers. In fact, no team has hit that pitch worse thus far. Well, Perez’s resurgence has come primarily because he has leaned into his best pitches more often, and no pitch has been better over the course of his career than his sinker. He’s throwing it 37% of the time and I expect plenty of dead worms here.

Beau Brieske has been serviceable but his skills look weak. His xERA (6.4) and FIP (6.06) far outstrip his acceptable 4.34 ERA. Even a Texas lineup that hasn’t been great against right-handed pitching and lost Eli White to injury should have a good shot to get to Brieske. I got in at a stellar price but think the -150 available this morning is still fine to bet.

Current best price: Rangers

LA Angels At Seattle Mariners

Another Shohei Ohtani start means another wager from me as I appear to be the high man on the two-way wonder. He’s just simply pitching much better than his 3.64 ERA indicates, with an elite 31.5% called strike+whiff rate and a 2.78 SIERA. Furthermore, he’ll be backed by something close to the full strength Angels offense, which has crashed back to earth due to injuries after performing at a top-five level early. Only Anthony Rendon, who aggravated a wrist injury may sit out. And while I like George Kirby, I just don’t see him maintaining anything close to his 3.4 SIERA while he sports a below average called strike+whiff rate and gives up such hard contact (91 mph exit velocity).

Current best price: Angels

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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